Rapid Responses to:
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Rapid Responses: Rapid Responses published:
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Contraction and convergence; myth and reality
- Peter F Smith (10 June 2006)
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Name of the patient: Planet Earth (PE)
- Mathew K Jose (10 June 2006)
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Climate change and sustainable development
- Ediriweera Desapriya, Dr. Ian Pike, Dr. Sayed Subzwari (16 June 2006)
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A new "disease of affluence" descibed.
- Woody Caan (19 June 2006)
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Organic Food
- Hugh Mann (15 October 2007)
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Peter F Smith, Special Professor in Sustainable Energy University of Nottingham NG72RD
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Congratulations on such a comprehensive review of climate change issues (BMJ Volume 332, 10 June 2006) On grounds of morality the principles of contraction and convergence is unassailable. In the real world it is a pipe dream. It would only work by being enforcible which implies an international policing authority with real teeth. Can we seriously believe that the US, China or Russia would submit to such an authority? Sadly there is no mileage in morality when affluent lifestyles are threatened. However, what will drive nations towards a low carbon future will be the economics of energy. Already uncertainty about security of supplies of oil and gas is having economic consequences. As the world crosses the summit of ‘peak oil’, expected within the next five years, price volatility will really hit home. It is right to plead for changes in individual behaviour, but only the de-carbonising of energy at source will make a predictable and sustained impact on CO2 emissions. The only long term route to this goal will be through the adoption of renewable energy technologies on two levels. First, small-scale to micro-generation systems are rapidly approaching market viability. Within five to ten years millions of homes could become cost-effective mini-power stations linked to a local mini- grid under the umbrella of distributed generation. The Energy Saving Trust estimates that this sector could meet 40% of UK electricity demand. Second, base load electricity could be provided by gigawatt scale technologies mostly drawing energy from wind, rivers and seas. Tidal stream, tidal estuary, tidal impoundment, wave power and offshore wind could more than match the output of today’s nuclear power. In the short term, ‘balancing power’ to compensate for intermittency would be provided by combined cycle gas power plants. In the longer term surplus electricity, which is an intrinsic problem with renewables, will be directed to producing hydrogen for grid connected gigawatt scale fuel cells in a symbiotic coupling with high energy density renewables installations. All this will, of course, depend on massive government investment, but so would nuclear! On the demand side, buildings are the biggest carbon culprits. The only effective answer, embracing both new and existing buildings, is the concept of the carbon budget, enforcible by law. This could also be adapted for transport. These have complex implications, perhaps for another time. Competing interests: None declared |
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Mathew K Jose, Consultant Physician Kochi,India 682018
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PE is running a temperature for some time and has suffered high stress levels recently, Tsunammi, Katrina? Self neglect and "excess" heaped on itself are apt descriptions of the condition. Gases are at 380ppm (normal 280ppm) and rising, 450ppm is critical.This seems to have lytic effects on ice caps and can cause 'pulmonary oedema' from rising sea levels, likely to rise by 6 or 7 meters.It seems a feedback loop is also at work as melting ice/water retains more heat. More fever, more stress- a vulnerable state when even innocuous can turn nasty and cause blazing fires. Time to act chaps ! Competing interests: None declared |
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Ediriweera Desapriya, Research Associate Department of Pediatrics, Centre for Community Child Health Research 4480 Oak Street V6H 3V4, Dr. Ian Pike, Dr. Sayed Subzwari
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Climate change is a new and rapidly developing topic of scientific inquiry and health risk assessment. A change in world climate would have wide-ranging, mostly adverse; consequences for human health and historically, periods of accelerated social transition have often been accompanied by the reemergence of infectious diseases (1). For several decades now we have been acutely aware of the increasingly intensifying effect that environmental degradation has on human health. Medical community is becoming more and more concerned about the potential impact of climate change on public health.(2) Epidemiological studies and public health data have identified how thermal stresses (including heat waves) and weather disasters can result in serious illness, injuries and death. (3, 4) The more the health impact of social and economic policies is recognized, the more obvious the importance of sustainable development will become. (4) By adopting a sustainable development philosophy in our personal and work lives, we could slow and prevent climate change. We need to pay more attention to the concept and philosophy of sustainable development as it is possibly the most important concept to emerge at the end of 20th century. Recognizing the wide-ranging potential consequences of climate change for our health and future of our children can greatly strengthen our commitments to the sustainable development. (5) The concept of sustainable development should be widely applied to guide and focus our economic and social development policy-making process throughout the globe. We need to encourage more sustainable global policies similar to European Union (EU) plan reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in line with a global 2°C target. European Union is investing in infrastructure, technologies to achieve this targets and social policies. Sweden has recently announced policy of non-reliance on oil by 2020. (6) REFERENCES: (1) Desapriya E.B., Climate change and health. CMAJ 2005; 16; 173(4):339-40 (2). Stott R., Healthy response to climate change. BMJ. 2006; 10; 332(7554):1385-7. (3). McMichael A.J., Haines A., Global climate change: the potential effects on health. BMJ 1997;315:805-9 (4) Epstein P.R., Emerging diseases and ecosystem instability: new threats to public health. Am J Public Health 1995;85(2):168-72 (5). Waterson, T., Lenton, S.,, Public health: Sustainable development, human induced global climate change, and the health of children. Arch. Dis. Child. 2000;82:95-97. (6). Woodruff R.E., McMichael A.J., Hales S., Action on climate change: no time to delay Med J Aust. 2006;5;184(11):539-40. Competing interests: None declared |
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Woody Caan, Professor of public health Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford CM1 1SQ, UK.
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In 'healthy response to climate change' [1], Stott notes a key economic factor: 'the demand for fossil fuel will soon exceed the supply'. With very rare exceptions, everyone I know shares this view (although there is modest disagreement about how soon 'soon' will be). This week an exemplary case study was published of those rare exceptions, afflicted with a specific visual disability that prevents them seeing this side of the evidence. The multinational company ExxonMobil simply rejects the view that 'we will soon reach a point when oil production starts going downhill', concluding 'peak production is nowhere in sight'. [2] The same company magazine reports a Net Income in the First Quarter of 2006 = $ 8,400,000,000. [3] This could represent the emergence of a new disease of affluence, Deliberate Oculoavaricious Hemianopia (or "Doh!"). 1 Stott R. Healthy response to climate change. BMJ 2006; 332: 1385- 1387. 2 Viewpoint. Peak oil? Contrary to the theory, oil production shows no sign of a peak. The Lamp 2006; 88 (1): 7. (published by Exxon Mobil Corporation in Irving, Texas) 3 ExxonMobil quarterly financial summary. The Lamp 2006; 88 (1): 34. (see 2, above) Competing interests: Voted for the (lost) environmental causes at the annual ExxonMobil shareholders' meeting. |
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Hugh Mann, Physician Eagle Rock, MO 65641 USA
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Most people have a love-hate relationship with food. We love to eat, but we
hate to shop, hate to cook, and hate to clean up. And of course, we worry
about our weight. Why is this? Perhaps it's because food reminds us that life
is not only fun, but also fragile, frustrating, frightening, and mystifying. Life is a metabolic mystery. No matter who we are or what we do, we all have to eat and drink and go to the bathroom. But how and why the food we eat transforms itself into life, and ultimately waste, is a mystery that science cannot fully explain. It's hard to live with such profound uncertainty. So we try to distract ourselves with fast food, alcohol, tobacco, drugs, and entertainment. And we try to ignore the biological basis of life - especially the connection between food and waste. However, there is one person who cannot ignore the connection between food and waste - the farmer. He knows that crops depend on compost and manure. He understands the cycle of life, and he keeps us alive. We owe him our gratitude. We owe a special debt of gratitude to the organic farmer. He understands that the life cycle of crops should not be contaminated with toxic chemicals, such as pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides. He also understands that farming must be safe for the farmer, the consumer, the land, the water, and the animals. He is a true pioneer for health and ecology. You can also be a pioneer for health and ecology. First, support organic farmers and encourage conventional farmers to become organic. Second, support health food stores and encourage supermarkets to carry organic products. Third, share your knowledge and experience with family, friends, physicians, and public officials. Your health and your planet depend on you! Competing interests: None declared |
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