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PAPERS: Trevor W Lambert and Michael J Goldacre Career destinations seven years on among doctors who qualified in the United Kingdom in 1988: postal questionnaire survey BMJ 1998; 317: 1429-1431 [Abstract] [Full text]

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G H Hall   (25 November 1998)

Untitled 25 November 1998
G H Hall Send response to journal: Re: this article	Sir Lambert and Goldacre (BMJ, Nov 21, p 1429) estimate that about 17% of qualifiers from British medical schools in 1983 and 1988 are not now working in the NHS. Their calculation, using the capture / recapture method, depends on the assumption that the probabilies of responding to either of the two inquiries (MCRG and DoH) are statistically independent of each other. Suppose, however, that there is a link, ie that a person answering one inquiry is more likely to respond to the other, and the converse. A two fold difference in this propensity would increase the estimated number of additional doctors in the NHS from 147 to 294 and the participation rate from 83% to 87%. This is a less worrying proportion and indicates the advisability of including a sensitivity analysis by varying the basic assumptions as well as the confidence limits for the error of the method. GH Hall (Late Chairman, Central Manpower Committee) -- GH Hall MD, Ballamount, Broadclyst,Devon EX5 3BJ.PH:01392 461515