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Rapid Responses to:
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Osman David Mansoor, Public Health Physician NZ Ministry of Health
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Dr Selway (BMJ 1998; 316: 1824) comments on the need to respond to material presented on “The informed parent” website which argues that immunisation is dangerous and unnecessary. The New Zealand Ministry of Health has analysed this material and found it full of flaws. Our analysis can be accessed on our Web site at: http://www.moh.govt.nz/phg/phillips.htm. As with other anti-immunisation material, the case is made to appear scientific through selective use of the literature. In general, the allegations made in “The informed parent” do not stand up to scrutiny. There are, of course, certain truths which have been the direct result of the success of immunisation programmes. For example, the risk from polio vaccine is greater than that of the disease for the simple reason that polio has been eliminated in many countries. It would be unfortunate if parents and health professionals were swayed by flawed arguments into abandoning immunisation, leading to the resurgence of disease. Dr Scheibner, another anti-immunisation campaigner, was the awarded Wooden Spoon by the Australian Skeptics in 1997. An excellent critique of her material is available on the Web at: http://www.skeptics.com.au/journal/anti-immune.htm. ******************************************** Dr Osman David Mansoor Public Health Physician Ministry of Health Email: ossi_mansoor@moh.govt.nz PO Box 5013 Phone: +64 4 496 2151 Wellington Fax: +64 4 496 2340 NEW ZEALAND ******************************************** |
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Julian Bell, Father (& Personnel Manager) Major UK Confectionery firm
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Firstly, may I establish myself - a father of a 1 year old son from the UK who is currently going through the agonising question of whether to immunise or not? Having read various articles cut from newspapers, photocopies from concerned mothers, stories from 1 mother who had her 15 month old vaccinated who had high temperatute, limp, poorly for 3 days and then ill & subdued for 2 weeks (needless to say she will not be having her second vaccinated!), watched the video by Dr Scheibner (and all the evidence that supports it) and read various papers from the BMJ and other sources... I am entirely confused! Having studied Economics (BSC St Andrews) with Statistics and Econometrics elements, whilst not an expert in Statistics, it appears to me that the impact of all the reasearch for the concerned Jo Public is distilled down into playing a risk/reward game. In an attempt to decipher the intellectual debates, perhaps someone can help answer the sections to my "flow chart"? In an attempt to draw it in my mind's eye - there are 2 branches at the top: To Vaccinate or not, with subsequent probabilities and consequences attached thereafter. The decision of whether or not to vaccinate will be a balanced calculation of probability and consequence from either side of the flow chart. Let me explain... If I vaccinate, what are the chances of having an adverse effect? (Prob A) how bad will this adverse effect be? (Effect A) what are the chances of my child then catching a disease? (Prob B) how bad will this be for him? (Effect B) If I do not vaccinate, what are the changes of my child catching a disease? (Prob C) how bad will this be for him? (Effect C) In the simplest terms: If (Prob A x Effect A) + (Prob B x Effect B) > (Prob C x Effect C) then do not vaccinate! Perhaps inbuilt in this equation is the answer to the question: "How effective is the vaccine in preventing the disease?" I have also assumed that the Effect of catching the disease after vaccination is not the same as the effect of catching the disease without the vaccine (Dr Scheibner talked about slightly different types of diseases depending on whether you had been vaccinated or not). This may appear all very simplistic, but to the concerned parent, they are playing an odds game with their children's health and this is probably what they are going through, either conciously or subconciously, in their mind when (if) they question whether or not to have their child vaccinated. Have I asked the answer to the impossible? I know having read various papers that statistics can be used in different ways to argue different points, but perhaps isolating some agreed facts from both sides of the equation (assuming there are some) will help concerned parents. If someone would be prepared to either comment or, even better, complete the flowchart then not only would it provide an interesting parent's angle to this debate but also help me in making my decision! |
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Caroline M Westwood, Mother TN6 2XD
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I have been told by a nurse that the MMR can contain certain preservatives that would not be reccomneded to adults in the doses contained in the MMR jab. I have been trying to get this confirmed or dismissed by anyone and have been unable to at the moment. He also told me that Scotland use a different form of the MMR jab that does not use these high levels of preservatives, but again i have found it hard to get this confirmed. If Scotland do use a different form of the vacine, can you confirm which they use? Many thanks Competing interests: None declared |
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