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Tyler C Smith, director 1,2, Margaret A K Ryan, associate adjunct professor1,2, Deborah L Wingard, professor and associate chief2, Donald J Slymen, professor 3, James F Sallis, professor 4, Donna Kritz-Silverstein, professor 5, for the Millennium Cohort Study Team
1 Department of Defense Center for Deployment Health Research at the Naval Health Research Center, San Diego, CA 92106, USA, 2 Division of Epidemiology, Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0607, 3 Graduate School of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92108, 4 Department of Psychology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92108, 5 Division of Epidemiology, Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0631
Correspondence to: T C Smith tyler.c.smith{at}med.navy.mil
Design Prospective cohort analysis.
Setting and participants Survey enrolment data from the millennium cohort (July 2001 to June 2003) obtained before the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Follow-up (June 2004 to February 2006) data on health outcomes collected from 50 184 participants.
Main outcome measures Self reported post-traumatic stress disorder as measured by the posttraumatic stress disorder checklist—civilian version using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition criteria.
Results More than 40% of the cohort were deployed between 2001 and 2006; between baseline and follow-up, 24% deployed for the first time in support of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. New incidence rates of 10-13 cases of post-traumatic stress disorder per 1000 person years occurred in the millennium cohort. New onset self reported post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms or diagnosis were identified in 7.6-8.7% of deployers who reported combat exposures, 1.4-2.1% of deployers who did not report combat exposures, and 2.3-3.0% of non-deployers. Among those with self reported symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder at baseline, deployment did not affect persistence of symptoms.
Conclusions After adjustment for baseline characteristics, these prospective data indicate a threefold increase in new onset self reported post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms or diagnosis among deployed military personnel who reported combat exposures. The findings define the importance of post-traumatic stress disorder in this population and emphasise that specific combat exposures, rather than deployment itself, significantly affect the onset of symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder after deployment.
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