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Published 3 November 2009, doi:10.1136/bmj.b4117
Cite this as: BMJ 2009;339:b4117
Michael Jelinek, cardiologist and associate professor of medicine1, Kevin Barraclough, general practitioner2
1 St Vincents Hospital and University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia, 2 Painswick GL6 6TY
Correspondence to: M Jelinek michael.jelinek@svhm.org.au
Having a sense of the accuracy of diagnostic tests will help general practitioners to interpret and use the tests appropriately and, as in the example of chest pain, avoid unnecessary testing (doi:10.1136/bmj.b3823)
| The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below. |
A 45 year old man attends an emergency department having had 10-15 minutes of severe retrosternal chest pain at a party earlier that evening. The pain occurred at rest and resolved spontaneously when he sat quietly. His electrocardiogram and troponin concentration are normal on arrival at hospital and again eight hours later. He is discharged that night and advised to see his general practitioner the next day for follow-up.
The likeliest cause of retrosternal pain in this patient is gastrointestinal. However, this presentation could be due to lethal coronary artery disease. The clinician needs to know whether the risk of coronary disease is low or whether the patient requires further testing to clarify the probability of coronary artery disease and the risk of cardiovascular death. An exercise electrocardiogram might refine the probability of disease and its prognosis.
Probabilistic (or bayesian) reasoning provides the framework with which a clinician can track
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