BMJ  2008;336:244 (2 February), doi:10.1136/bmj.39458.480764.AD

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Is the obesity epidemic exaggerated? Yes

¹ Johns Hopkins University, 1717 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC 20036, USA, ² Democracy Institute, London EC1V 4PY

doi: 10.1136/bmj.39458.495127.AD

The UK health secretary declared last week that we are in the grip of an obesity epidemic. Patrick Basham and John Luik believe that the problem is less clear cut, but R W Jeffery and N E Sherwood say that obesity is a growing global problem

The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below.

The claims, both in the media and in professional publications, about an epidemic, its causes, consequences, and cure often exceed the scientific evidence and mistakenly suggest an unjustified degree of certainty. The fact that cases are "clearly above normal expectancy" anchors the concept of an epidemic. In this respect, describing obesity as an epidemic is subject to two difficulties.

Firstly, it is difficult to determine normal expectancy. Much of the data on overweight and obesity are limited, equivocal, and compromised in terms of extent and the reliability of the measurements and the populations sampled. In the US, for example, data about population weights date from only 1960. Several pieces of evidence, however, suggest that the contemporary situation may be close to, rather than in excess of, normal.

The earliest national survey shows that in 1960 45% of the US population was overweight, accordingto sex specific weight for height tables (corresponding . . . [Full text of this article]

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