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Published 16 December 2008, doi:10.1136/bmj.a2890
Cite this as: BMJ 2008;337:a2890
Angus Nicoll, influenza coordinator1, Kei Mori, assistant official2, Masato Tashiro, director3
1 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 17183, Stockholm, Sweden , 2 Health Service Bureau, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Tokyo, Japan, 3 WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, National Institute of Infectious Disease, Tokyo, Japan
Correspondence to: A Nicoll Angus.nicoll{at}ecdc.europa.eu
Angus Nicoll and colleagues unearth the young Churchills poem about the Russian flu pandemic of 1890-1
The Winston Churchill Museum contains a poem on the Russian flu pandemic of the 1890s written by Churchill when age 15, towards the end of his school days at Harrow. That poem is reproduced below, and it records features probably common to all pandemics. Firstly, that the virulence of infection usually diminishes with time and extension of a pandemic:
| "Yet Father Neptune strove right well To moderate this plague of Hell, And thwart it in its course; And though it passed the streak of brine [the English Channel] And penetrated this thin line, It came with broken force."
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Secondly, that the intensity of transmission often falls in late spring and summer:
| "For though it ravaged far and wide Both village, town and countryside, Its power to kill was oer; And with the favouring winds of Spring (Blest is the time of which I sing) It left our native shore."
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The 1890-1 pandemic was perhaps the sixth pandemic of that century and certainly the best described.1 2 3 4 Its clinical and epidemiological features are typical of influenza type A.2 3 4 It was first described in Central Russia and then spread to Europe, but it may have arisen in China and southeast Asia (now thought to be the origin of new influenza A viruses5).
Different flu pandemics have distinct features in terms of severity, who they affect, clinical spectrum, and which groups account for most transmission—one reason why they are so difficult to plan for.6 The 1890 pandemic had a much lower observed case-fatality rate than that of the 1918-9 Spanish flu.2 4 6 Many died though, because of an overall high attack rate and the inability of medical services to treat primary or secondary infections.2 4 The high mortality interrupted the decline in deaths from communicable diseases caused by improved sanitation and living standards in the later 19th century.2 FB Smith suggests that the pandemic contributed to the sense of "fin de siècle" that influenced western European art and society.2
Although the 1890-1 pandemic was only mild to moderate in severity, mass sickness disrupted core services and the UK economy.2 Postal communications stopped for weeks and railway services were interrupted. Command and control mechanisms were impaired. In 1890 the prime minister was incapacitated for several weeks, and in 1891 committee work in parliament had to stop.4 Transmission was intensified because the lack of sick pay and fear of losing their jobs made sick people ignore advice to stay at home.2 The 1890s event shows what can happen when preparations for pandemic flu are inadequate.
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Cite this as: BMJ 2008;337:a2890
Provenance and peer review: Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.