Intended for healthcare professionals

Predicting cardiovascular risk in England and Wales: prospective derivation and validation of QRISK2

Julia Hippisley-Cox, Carol Coupland, Yana Vinogradova, John Robson, Rubin Minhas, Aziz Sheikh, Peter Brindle
Table 1

 Characteristics of patients aged 35-74 in derivation and validation cohorts in QRESEARCH database (version 19) 1993-2008

Derivation cohortValidation cohort
No (%) of womenNo (%) of menNo (%) of womenNo (%) of men
No of patients773 291762 292375 763374 469
Total person years observation5 645 1045 280 5712 594 8422 470 729
Median age (IQR)49 (41-60)48 (40-58)49 (41-59)47 (40-57)
Ethnicity:
 White or not recorded752 241 (97.3)743 159 (97.5)363 516 (96.7)363 097 (97.0)
 Indian3635 (0.47)3693 (0.48)2241 (0.60)2200 (0.59)
 Pakistani2035 (0.26)2033 (0.27)1114 (0.30)1246 (0.33)
 Bangladeshi1213 (0.26)1269 (0.17)611 (0.16)723 (0.19)
 Other Asian1802 (0.16)1422 (0.19)1086 (0.29)988 (0.26)
 Black Caribbean3928 (0.51)3109 (0.41)1870 (0.50)1495 (0.40)
 Black African3655 (0.47)3316 (0.44)2423 (0.64)2201 (0.59)
 Chinese1128 (0.15)859 (0.11)675 (0.18)478 (0.13)
 Other including mixed3654 (0.47)3432 (0.45)2227 (0.59)2041 (0.55)
Risk factors:
 Ethnicity recorded209 214 (27.1)181 110 (23.8)108 540 (28.9)94 522 (25.2)
 BMI recorded622 741(80.5)562 278 (73.8)304 084 (80.9)274 403 (73.3)
 Smoking recorded703 574 (91.0)650 460 (85.3)344 194 (91.6)319 800 (85.4)
 Cholesterol/HDL ratio recorded265 402 (34.3)247 116 (32.4)210 638 (56.1)125 037 (33.4)
 Systolic blood pressure recorded711 935 (92.1)647 782 (85.0)344 967 (91.8)313 125 (83.6)
 Complete BMI and smoking615 301 (79.6)554 070 (72.7)301 016 (80.1)270 956 (72.4)
 Positive family history of CHD97 448 (12.6)73 740 (9.7)48 610 (12.9)36 761 (9.8)
 Current smoker176 202 (22.8)208 913 (27.4)88 672 (23.6)104 829 (28.0)
 Treated hypertension55 069 (7.12)42 607 (5.59)25 953 (6.91)20 083 (5.36)
 Type 2 diabetes13 127 (1.70)17 107 (2.24)6186 (1.65)8179 (2.18)
 Rheumatoid arthritis7187 (0.93)2996 (0.39)3310 (0.88)1380 (0.37)
 Atrial fibrillation2692 (0.35)1880 (0.25)1242 (0.33)2155 (0.58)
 Chronic kidney disease1227 (0.16)1117 (0.15)621 (0.17)498 (0.13)

IQR=interquartile range; BMI=body mass index; HDL=high density lipoprotein cholesterol; CHD=coronary heart disease.