BMJ  2006;333 (5 August), doi:10.1136/bmj.333.7562.0-c

Both screened and screeners misinterpret test results

Different groups of people draw incorrect inferences when the results of screening are presented to them as probabilities. Bramwell and colleagues (p 284) recruited four groups of participants that were roughly equal in numbers—pregnant women, their companions, midwives, and obstetricians. Participants were presented with the results of a screening test for Down's syndrome, either as percentages or as frequencies, and were asked to interpret the results. Although obstetricians performed considerably better than the rest, almost 86% of the responses were incorrect. Many professionals were confident about their incorrect responses.

Credit: JAMES KING-HOLMES/SPL

 

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