BMJ  2004;328:800 (3 April), doi:10.1136/bmj.328.7443.800

Paper

India versus Pakistan and the power of a six: an analysis of cricket results

¹ BMJ, ² Education Resource Centre, Birmingham Women's Health Care NHS Trust, Birmingham

Introduction

To paraphrase CLR James, "What do they know of South Asia who do not cricket know?" George Orwell described sport as war minus the shooting. South Asian cricket has been dubbed war minus the nuclear missiles. The result of a sports match can trigger cardiac deaths,¹ and contests between India and Pakistan have prompted shootings, riots, killings, and sudden death. Cricket has been used as an extension of foreign policy—to instigate peace or prolong hostilities. However, regional cooperation will probably increase prosperity, with some commentators arguing that cricket is an important component of public health strategies.²

Facing up to the future requires a dispassionate appraisal of the past. How have India and Pakistan fared against each other in cricket? To answer this question—uppermost in the minds of over a billion people in South Asia and many millions outside—we compared 50 years of test matches and one day matches between India and Pakistan. One incident galvanised the emotions of these two nations. In 1986 Pakistan batsman Javed Miandad scored a dramatic match-winning six off the last ball in a one day match that his side had looked like losing until that delivery—a shot heard throughout South Asia and much of the world. The burning question since has been what effect Miandad's six—a reference point in South Asia to rival John F Kennedy's shooting and the winning baseball strike in Don DeLillo's Underworld—had on the subsequent performance of the teams? Could analysis of results before and after this reference point answer the question, end conjecture, and allow peace to blossom?

Methods and results

We analysed all 133 matches between 1952 and 2003. There were 47 test matches and 86 one day matches. India won five (11%) test matches and 30 (35%) one day internationals, and Pakistan won nine (19%) and 52 (60%) respectively. The rest were drawn, or abandoned because of bad weather, crowd trouble, or assassination. We grouped matches into time periods 1952-86 (35 test and 17 one day matches) and 1986-2003 (12 test and 69 one day matches) according to our specified time point—Miandad's six. We examined the relation between match results and time periods by cross tabulation and assessed the strength of association (Kendall's rank correlation).

Overall, Pakistan was more likely to win after the hit (correlation coefficient = 0.17, P = 0.03). Venue (home, away, or neutral) was not associated with outcome ( = 0.01, P = 0.82), and neither was winning the toss ( = 0.06, P = 0.44) or batting first ( = 0.04, P = 0.55). In the cumulative win chart, the steep upward slope for one day matches after 1986 highlights the change in fortunes in Pakistan's favour (figure).

View larger version (41K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Match results according to match type and time period (before and after Miandad's match-winning six). Results presented as 100% stacked bar charts with number of matches included as figures in the stacks. Cumulative win chart sums up the results over time, with an increase by 1 indicating a Pakistan win and a decrease by 1 indicating an Indian win

 

Comment

Overall, Pakistan has achieved greater success in both forms of the game. These data suggest that in one day matches Miandad's six inspired an improvement in Pakistan's performance or a decline in India's, or both, but this effect was small in test cricket. Venue, winning the toss, and batting first were not associated with outcome. We believe there are no other important explanations for the observed findings. Both teams have won one World Cup final and lost one. No other factors were at play around our reference point that might have favoured one team over the other, certainly not in terms of retirements or rule or format changes. Weather conditions, ground conditions, selection policies, and match fixes are too innumerable to measure or adjust for. We believe these data support our hypothesis that a single shot had an enduring influence. Now India must have a landmark victory of its own—it may have already.

---

See p 843

Contributors: KA conceived the study, supplied the hypothesis, advised on the analysis, and wrote and edited the manuscript. KSK helped formulate the hypothesis, performed the analysis, and wrote and edited the manuscript. Christopher Martyn ridiculed the analysis before offering a little sensible advice. KA is guarantor.

Funding: None.

Competing interests: Both KA and KSK fail the Tebbit Test in favour of Pakistan, closely followed by India.

References

1. Witte DR, Bots ML, Hoes AW, Grobbee DE. Cardiovascular mortality in Dutch men during 1996 European football championship: longitudinal population study. BMJ 2000;321: 1552-4.[Abstract/Free Full Text]
2. Shafqat S, Barucha N. Is cricket the magic glue that unites South Asia? BMJ 2004;328: 843.[Free Full Text]

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Rapid Responses:

Read all Rapid Responses

Is this BMJ or Wisden's?

ATUL. C. GARUD, et al.
bmj.com, 2 Apr 2004 [Full text]

Seriously

Vikas Soni
bmj.com, 2 Apr 2004 [Full text]

I'm sorry can you say that again?

Peter Griffiths
bmj.com, 2 Apr 2004 [Full text]

miandad was he so damn good?

jude savio furtado
bmj.com, 3 Apr 2004 [Full text]

Pioneering Work

rob murray
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What has this paper proven?

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Different and Refreshing

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What is the poit of this article?

Ketan Dhatariya
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mmm...

Ayan S Panja
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Clutching at the past

Pankaj Agarwal
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Re: 'Seriously' & 'Is this BMJ or Wisden's?'

Omer Khayam
bmj.com, 3 Apr 2004 [Full text]

They are kidding, aren't they?

Robert I. Rudolph, M.D., FACP
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Speak about the present, plan for the future

Riff Khan
bmj.com, 3 Apr 2004 [Full text]

...how about Sehwags Tripple Ton?

shabbir usman, et al.
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Miandad:The street fighter

Prashant Kulkarni
bmj.com, 3 Apr 2004 [Full text]

Venue more important factor in Indo-Pak cricket matches than Miandad

Rahul Walawalkar
bmj.com, 4 Apr 2004 [Full text]

but...Nehra turned the psychological advantage in favour of India

Ayaz Jaffar
bmj.com, 4 Apr 2004 [Full text]

OK....so Pakistan never having defeated India in World Cup matches has nothing to do with psyche?

Aditya N Mandavilli
bmj.com, 4 Apr 2004 [Full text]

Re: Seriously

rahat aididi
bmj.com, 4 Apr 2004 [Full text]

good work

karthik obla
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Journal or Magazine?

Abhijit M Bal
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Flannelled fools?

Anthony E J Fitchett
bmj.com, 5 Apr 2004 [Full text]

Publishing guidelines please

O Rahim
bmj.com, 5 Apr 2004 [Full text]

Bad cricket !!

Vivekananda P Joshi
bmj.com, 5 Apr 2004 [Full text]

Miandad's sixer and all the fuss..

Sumit Chawla
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Is BMJ not getting quality articles to publish these days? Not only it is a badly written, the analysis tools are also faulty.

Deepankar Roy
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Stats, Stats, and xxxx lies

Dr. Rashid Ali
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Hehehe

Brian N Verona
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Indians will never accept their mistakes

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Analysis of India versus Pakistan cricket results: the importance of informative match outcomes, confounders, and multivariate analysis

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Irrelevent and trite..

Mathew J. Antony
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Irrelevent and trite..

Mathew J. Antony
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Don't make it an issue now

Dr Ahmad Tariq Ansari
bmj.com, 6 Apr 2004 [Full text]

Re: Clutching at the past

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bmj.com, 6 Apr 2004 [Full text]

The possible confounding factor in the cricket puzzle...

Hilary Butler
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Please hush it up!!!

Nitesh D Shetty
bmj.com, 6 Apr 2004 [Full text]

Re: Flannelled fools?

Robert I. Rudolph, MD. FACP
bmj.com, 6 Apr 2004 [Full text]

Re: good work

Javed A. Khan
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Past statistics in present, does not hold good in the cricket field

Mangesh V Desai
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Why not Sanath Jayasuryas batting style which transformed Srilanka

Mangesh V Desai
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4 the people

Krishnan Prasad
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Go ask Gawaskar

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Cool Down people and accept the truth

Bhisham Harchadani
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Oh YES, the power of that six

Adnan Zafar
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Lets face the truth!

Wajahat Mateen
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Re: Re: Flannelled fools and Americans?

Mark Struthers
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What about 'biased' umpiring?

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Re: Go ask Gawaskar

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Good effort by the authors to shift the limelight from India's victory at Multan.

Dr Sahana Kini
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Kamran Abbassi is spot on

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Pure Indian - Never changes

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Re: Kamran Abbassi is spot on

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Re: Kamran Abbassi is spot on

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Re: Oh YES, the power of that magnificient six

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Too much Hate Mongering

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Excusez-moi Monsieur Javed Khan

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Time Wasting Activities

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Kamran Abbassi is spot on

A Choudary
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Re: Too much Hate Mongering

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Re: Re: Oh YES, the power of that magnificient six

Abu Bakr Farooq
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What a silly article?

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PLEASE,IT WAS JUST ONE SIX..... WHAT ABOUT SEHWAG'S TRIPLE TON AND THE THUNDEROUS INNINGS OF SACHIN?

Abhishek Vootukuru
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GET BACK TO WORK .. all of you !!!

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Re: Re: 4 the people

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Laddishness at the BMJ

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BMJ and cricket?

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Miandad's six: a metaphor for chaos and complexity.

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Cricket and peace Zindabad

Vidhu Mayor
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We should have more articles like this

Rajarshi Raha
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Lighten Up

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