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| Treatments being compared in the cost effectiveness assessment |
(A) |
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(G=D-E) |
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| Placebo v aspirin |
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85 | 3667 |
| Aspirin v aspirin+diuretic and b blocker |
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228 | 12 096 |
| Aspirin+diuretic and b blocker v aspirin+diuretic and b blocker+enalapril |
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602 | 34 103 |
| Aspirin+diuretic and b blocker v aspirin+diuretic and b blocker+enalapril v Aspirin+diuretic and b blocker v aspirin+diuretic and b blocker+enalapril +statin |
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2385 | 123 022 |
*Discount rates are 6% per year for costs and 1.5% per year for benefits. All event rates (normalised to 1 patient) and all costs (normalised to 1 patient) are at five years.
Each value of the relative risk refers to adjunctive drug
(considered in each individual row of table) v placebo. Contradiction
arises because relative risks (obtained from either clinical studies or
meta-analyses) compare drug under examination (adjunctive drug) with placebo,
whereas cost effectiveness assessment in same row compares combination
with absence of adjunctive drug v combination with presence of adjunctive
drug (with no comparison v placebo). Hence, comparators in relative
risk assessment (adjunctive drug v placebo) differ from those used
for cost effectiveness comparison (absence v presence of adjunctive
drug). Contradiction is only apparent because relative risks are applied
in a chain of subsequent multiplications throughout the table. For example,
if cost effectiveness comparison of aspirin v aspirin+diuretic
and b blocker
appears with relative risk of placebo v
diuretic and b
blocker (RR=0.83), there is no error because relative risk of aspirin v
placebo (RR=0.75) has already been incorporated as multiplicative factor
in previous row and its presence affects all subsequent rows (including
comparison of aspirin v
aspirin+diuretic and b
blocker).