BMJ 2003;327:323 (9 August), doi:10.1136/bmj.327.7410.323
Primary care
Acute low back pain: systematic review of its prognosis
Liset H M Pengel, PhD student1,
Robert D Herbert, senior lecturer1,
Chris G Maher, associate professor1,
Kathryn M Refshauge, associate professor1
1 School of Physiotherapy, University of Sydney, PO Box 170, Lidcombe NSW 1825,
Australia
Correspondence to: R D Herbert
R.Herbert{at}fhs.usyd.edu.au
Abstract
Objectives To describe the course of acute low back pain and
sciatica and to identify clinically important prognostic factors
for these
conditions.
Design Systematic review.
Data sources Searches of Medline, Embase, Cinahl, and Science
Citation Index and iterative searches of bibliographies.
Main outcome measures Pain, disability, and return to work.
Results 15 studies of variable methodological quality were included.
Rapid improvements in pain (mean reduction 58% of initial scores), disability
(58%), and return to work (82% of those initially off work) occurred in one
month. Further improvement was apparent until about three months. Thereafter
levels for pain, disability, and return to work remained almost constant. 73%
of patients had at least one recurrence within 12 months.
Conclusions People with acute low back pain and associated
disability usually improve rapidly within weeks. None the less, pain and
disability are typically ongoing, and recurrences are common.
Introduction
Clinical practice guidelines promote the view that acute low
back pain has
a favourable prognosisthe 2000 UK guideline
states that "90% [of
cases] will recover within six
weeks."
1
2 Yet these estimates are
either unsubstantiated or based on
individual studies. To date evidence of the
prognosis of acute
low back pain has not been systematically reviewed.
Many guidelines for acute low back pain advocate identification of adverse
prognostic factors such as fear avoidance behaviours, leg pain, or low job
satisfaction. Previous reviews of prognostic factors have been descriptive, do
not use strict inception cohorts, or do not provide quantitative information
of the predictive value of the
factors.3-6
We aimed to systematically review published data on the course of acute low
back pain and to identify clinically important prognostic factors. The term
course refers to both the natural course and the clinical course of low back
pain.
Methods
To be included studies had to be of a prospective design, describe
the
source of participants and method of sampling, have an
inception cohort of
participants with low back pain or sciatica
for less than three weeks, have a
follow up period of at least
three months, and report on symptoms, health
related quality
of life, disability, or return to work. Studies were excluded
that recruited patients with specific diseases such as arthritis,
fracture,
tumour, or cauda equina syndrome (but not sciatica).
Identification of studies and assessment of methodological
quality
Studies were identified through searches of Medline, Embase, and Cinahl to
March 2002. We also searched personal files and tracked references of included
studies through the Science Citation Index. The search strategies were those
recommended by the Cochrane Back Review Group together with a strategy for
searching Medline for prognostic
studies.7
8 Keywords used were
inception, survival, logistic, Cox, life tables, and log rank. We had no
language restrictions.
Despite there being no widely accepted method for assessing methodological
quality of prognosis studies and no empirical evidence of bias related to
various methodological features of such studies, validity criteria have been
proposed.8
Methodological quality was assessed by six criteria
(table 1). Two raters
independently assessed the quality. A third reviewer resolved
disagreements.
Data extraction and analysis
Study characteristics extracted from eligible papers were target
population, sample size, duration of low back pain at time of enrolment,
description of interventions, duration of follow up, prognostic factors, and
outcome measures. Outcome data extracted were pain, disability, return to
work, and recurrences. Data were extracted for time points where follow up was
at least 80%. Data on return to work were obtained from the stratum of
participants off work at baseline. To facilitate comparison, pain and
disability scores were converted to a 100 point scale. Ten studies were
controlled trials. For these studies, data were extracted for the control
group, defined as the group receiving the least active intervention. In one
trial, outcomes were reported only for the whole study sample because at
follow up no differences were found between the groups receiving manual
therapy, intensive training, or medical
care.9 Prognostic
data from this study are therefore based on the outcomes of the three
groups.
The Wilson score method was used to calculate the confidence intervals for
a single
proportion.10 When
it was possible to pool data across studies we obtained n weighted pooled
means for continuous data and variance weighted pooled proportions for
dichotomous data. The n weighted mean was used in preference to the variance
weighted mean (the usual method of meta-analysis) because several studies did
not provide variance data. Variance weighted pooled proportions were
calculated using a random effects
model.11
Studies evaluating prognostic factors used a range of modelling procedures
and many different covariates, making pooling across studies
problematic.8
Prognostic data were therefore not pooled. Data on prognostic factors were
extracted only if the study reported on at least 80% of participants. If
possible, odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were extracted or
calculated from the data. A second reviewer checked the data extraction.
Results
The search retrieved 4458 articles, of which only
15
9
12-30
fulfilled all inclusion criteria and were included in our review
(
table 2). Five studies were
described in more than one
report.
9
12
13
16
17
19
20
22
23
28 Of the 15 studies,
only
one monitored patients with
sciatica.
30 The
studies included
nine randomised controlled trials that evaluated
exercise,
9
15
16
18
22
23
25
28 manual
therapy,
9
28 an educational
pamphlet,
21 medical
care,
9
16
22
23
28 non-steroidal
anti-inflammatory
drugs,
30 and bed
rest
25
26; one controlled trial
that evaluated
an early intervention in the work-place
12
13; and five cohort
studies,
14
19
20
24
27
29 one of which included
an intervention
by general
practitioners.
14
Patients were recruited from primary
care,
9
14
16
18
24
26-30
specialists,
18
26 hospital emergency
departments,
9
15
18
22
23
28 and occupational
healthcare
providers.
9
12
13
19-21
25
28
30
Methodological quality
The two reviewers scored 84 quality criteria and agreed on 64 (76%). The
intraclass correlation coefficient (2,1) for the total score was 0.52. Most
studies defined the sample (87%). Five studies (33%) explicitly described
methods for assembling a representative sample. Eleven studies (73%) had
follow up of at least 80%. All but one study quantified
prognosis.18 Six
studies reported prognostic factors. Of the six studies, one
(17%)19
20 used blinded
assessment and four
(67%)13
14
27
28 performed statistical
adjustment for prognostic factors.
Course of low back pain
Most studies reported that pain decreased rapidly (by between 12% and 84%
of initial levels, pooled mean 58%) within one month. Pain continued to
decrease, albeit more slowly, until about three months
(fig 1). Two studies that
provided data beyond the three month follow up showed that pain levels
remained nearly constant until the 12 month follow
up.12
16 The pooled mean level
of pain on a 100 point scale was 22 at one month and 15 between three and 12
months. A similar trend was seen for disability, which decreased by between
33% and 83% of initial levels (pooled mean 58%) within one month
(fig 1). One study reported
data on six month follow
up.12 The pooled
mean level of disability on a 100 point scale was 24 at one month and 14
between three and six months.

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|
Fig 1 Means (95% confidence intervals) for pain (top) and disability (bottom)
during 12 months after onset of acute low back pain
|
|
Between 68% and 86% of participants initially off work returned to work
within one month (pooled estimate 82%, 95% confidence interval 73% to 91%;
fig 2). One study reported data
on six month follow
up.21 The pooled
estimate of the proportion of participants who returned to work, extracted
from studies that reported return to work at three to six months, was 93% (91%
to 96%).

View larger version (19K):
[in this window]
[in a new window]
|
Fig 2 Means (95% confidence intervals) for return to work during 12 months after
onset of acute low back pain of those initially off work. Reid et
al20 report
proportion returned to work, including those who returned to work and
subsequently left work
|
|
The cumulative risk (one study, 135 participants) of at least one
recurrence within three months was 26% (19% to
34%).26 Two studies
reported recurrences within 12
months.16
23 The cumulative risk
of at least one recurrence within 12 months varied from 66% to 84% (pooled
estimate 73%, 59% to 88%). One study reported a cumulative risk of recurrence
after three years of
84%.23
One study included patients with
sciatica.30 In this
sample, both back pain and leg pain decreased, on average, by 69% of initial
scores within one month. Disability decreased by 57% of initial scores within
one month. Data on long term pain and disability were not available.
Prognostic factors
Three studies reported on prognostic factors for at least 80% of the
population.14
19
27 With one exception,
odds ratios of significant prognostic factors ranged from 0.04 to 10.4. One
study reported that scores of 0.48 or more on the Vermont disability
prediction questionnaire were predictive of return to work at three months
(odds ratio 76.3, 9.6 to 604.9; positive likelihood ratio 5.7, 3.9 to 8.5;
negative likelihood ratio 0.07, 0.01 to
0.50).19
Discussion
Our review confirms the widely held view that most people with
acute low
back pain have rapid improvements in pain and disability
within one month.
Most of those off work with back pain also
returned to work within one month.
Further improvement occurred
until about three months. Thereafter levels of
pain, disability,
and return to work remained almost constant, although only
two studies provided follow up data beyond three
months.
12
16
Although most people return to work within 12 months, low levels of pain
and disability persist. The studies did not report enough data to establish if
levels of long term pain and disability reflect a small subgroup with high
levels of pain and disability or a large subgroup with low levels of pain and
disability. Nor is it clear whether chronic low levels of pain and disability
are due to persistence of the original episode or to recurrent episodes.
Findings from previous reviews on prognostic factors of low back pain have
been
inconsistent.3-6
Putative prognostic factors include psychological factors such as
distress,3
5 personal factors such
as previous back
pain,6 and work
related factors such as job
satisfaction.4
However, the evidence of the prognostic value of these factors comes mainly
from studies that either did not recruit a relevant cohort or were
methodologically weak. We located only one relevant, methodologically strong
paper that provided evidence of a clinically useful predictor of outcome (in
this case return to work) for primary care patients with acute low back pain.
Hazard et al reported that scores of 0.48 or more on the Vermont disability
prediction questionnaire were associated with a likelihood ratio of 5.7 and
scores of less than 0.48 were associated with a likelihood ratio of
0.07.19 Given the
low prevalence of failure to return to work at three months (pooled estimate
of 6%), this predictor may be of limited clinical utility. Moreover, the
cut-off score of 0.48 was chosen by inspection of the data, which is known to
inflate predictive
accuracy.31
| What is already known on this topic
Clinical practice guidelines state that recovery from acute low back pain
is rapid and complete
What this study adds
People with acute back pain experience improvements in pain, disability,
and return to work within one month
Further but smaller improvements occur up to three months, after which pain
and disability levels remain almost constant
Low levels of pain and disability persist from three to at least 12
months
Most people will have at least one recurrence within 12 months
| |
Participants off work with low back pain have higher pain and disability
scores than people who are
working.32 Thus it
may be sensible to consider separately the prognosis of those off work. It
remains unclear if the prognosis of participants initially off work is worse
than those who are not.
We included only studies that recruited inception cohorts of participants
with low back pain or sciatica for less than three weeks. This policy may be
sufficiently restrictive or too restrictive. A formal sensitivity analysis of
participants with low back pain for less than one week and for less than three
weeks showed that the reduction in pain and disability is similar in these two
groups, justifying inclusion of studies with participants having pain for up
to three weeks. However, inclusion of participants with low back pain for up
to six weeks seems unjustified. Our data show that study participants had
rapid improvements in pain and disability within one month. By six weeks,
participants had already improved significantly; typically pain and disability
were only a third of initial values. Moreover, many people no longer had back
pain at six weeks, so those recruited with back pain for six weeks cannot be
representative of all people who have back pain. We therefore believe it is
justifiable to restrict our review to participants with low back pain for
three weeks or less.
Contributors: LHMP designed the study protocol, located and
selected
studies, extracted and interpreted the data, wrote
the paper, and approved the
final manuscript. RDH designed
the study protocol, extracted and interpreted
the data, advised
on the statistical analysis, and revised and approved the
final
manuscript. CGM and KMR designed the study protocol, assessed
the
quality of the trials, interpreted the data, and revised
and approved the
final manuscript. LHMP will act as guarantor
for the paper.
Funding: LHMP's scholarship was funded by the National Health and Medical
Research Council and the Australasian Physiotherapy Low Back Pain Trial
Consortium. The guarantor accepts full responsibility for the conduct of the
study, had access to the data, and controlled the decision to publish.
Competing interests: None declared.
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- Low back pain should be viewed as a chronic disease
- Michal R Pijak, et al.
bmj.com, 20 Aug 2003
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- Systematic review of prognosis in acute low back pain: bias in indentification of relevant studies
- Michal R Pijak, et al.
bmj.com, 27 Aug 2003
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- Bias in review of back pain prognosis
- Jos H Verbeek
bmj.com, 11 Sep 2003
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- RE: Bias in review of back pain prognosis
- Liset HM Pengel, et al.
bmj.com, 14 Oct 2003
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