Screening 1000 women for 35 years prevents one cervical cancer death

In the NHS cervical screening programme, 10 000 women need to be screened for 35 years to prevent 10 out of the 25 deaths estimated to occur without screening. Raffle and colleagues (p 901) analysed the screening records of 350 000 women in Bristol across 20 years and modelled cases of cervical cancer and deaths with and without screening. According to their model, for each death prevented, 152 women have abnormal test results, 79 are referred for investigation, and 53 have treatment. The authors draw attention to the fact that because screening is resource intensive and potentially harmful, good evidence on all its outcomes is required.

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Relevant Article

Outcomes of screening to prevent cancer: analysis of cumulative incidence of cervical abnormality and modelling of cases and deaths prevented

A E Raffle, B Alden, M Quinn, P J Babb, and M T Brett
BMJ 2003 326: 901. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]