Simple signs predict children's deaths in African hospitals

Simple scores calculated from prognostic factors present on admission to hospital in Africa can help predict which children are likely to die. Children admitted to district hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa often have several health problems, including malnutrition, malaria parasitaemia, anaemia, dehydration, and bacterial and viral infections, including HIV. Berkley and colleagues (p 361) investigated indicators of in-hospital mortality in 8091 children admitted to a Kenyan district hospital and found that neurological status, respiratory distress, nutritional status, severe anaemia, jaundice, temperature, and length of history were prognostic. These were validated in another sample of 4802 children. Simple scores provide a means of adjusting for severity in descriptions of outcomes, as well as a way of identifying those children who are particularly at risk on admission.

(Credit: STRINGER/AP)

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Relevant Article

Prognostic indicators of early and late death in children admitted to district hospital in Kenya: cohort study

J A Berkley, A Ross, I Mwangi, F H A Osier, M Mohammed, M Shebbe, B S Lowe, K Marsh, and C R J C Newton
BMJ 2003 326: 361. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]