Decision theory in clinical diagnosis should be evidence based

Evidence based medicine applies decision theory to clinical diagnosis. In the fourth article in our series of evidence based diagnosis, Elstein and Schwarz (p 729) recommend that the choice of strategy for diagnostic problem solving depends on the perceived difficulty of the case and on knowledge of content as well as strategy and that final conclusions should depend on both prior belief and strength of evidence. They suggest that conclusions reached by Bayes's theorem and clinical intuition may conflict.


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Relevant Article

Evidence base of clinical diagnosis: Clinical problem solving and diagnostic decision making: selective review of the cognitive literature
Arthur S Elstein and Alan Schwarz
BMJ 2002 324: 729-732. [Extract] [Full Text] [PDF]

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