Table A

Table B

Table C

Table D

Table E

Table F

Table G
 

Table A Prevalence of smoking by age in United Kingdom since 1950

	Men, any tobacco				Men, cigarettes*				Women, cigarettes*
	25-34	35-59	60		25-34	35-59	60		25-34	35-59	60
1948-52†	80	82	81		71	67	39		53	40	22
1958-62†	70	76	71		63	62	45		51	48	21
1968-72†	68	70	66		57	53	44		50	50	25
1978-82†‡	55	56	50		43	40	31		43	43	24
1988-92§	41	42	33		36	33	24		34	33	20
1998¶	39	36	21		37	30	16		33	28	16

*Percentage currently smoking manufactured cigarettes (1948-82) or any cigarettes (1988-98); fewer than 1% of women smoked only tobacco products other than these.

†Mean of five annual surveys.⁹

‡Estimated from published 1978-82 prevalences at ages 25-34, 35-49, 50-64, and 65.

 

Table B Lung cancer mortality among men in United Kingdom, 1950-97. Rates for ages 35-54, 55-74, and 0-74 are means of the rates in the component five year age ranges

Mean value	Age (years)
	All	0-4	5-	10-	15-	20-	25-	30-	35-	40-	45-	50-	55-	60-	65-	70-	75-	80-	85*	35-54	55-74	0-74†
1950-2
Population (1000s)	24219	2178	1941	1684	1566	1658	1855	1760	1851	1890	1766	1499	1238	1072	887	678	429	195	73	7006	3874	23522
Deaths/year	12463	1	1	0	3	9	32	63	185	474	1028	1737	2174	2339	2117	1364	671	213	53	3423	7994	11526
Rates/100 000		0.06	0.03	0.00	0.21	0.54	1.71	3.56	10.01	25.06	58.18	115.89	175.62	218.32	238.66	201.20	156.37	109.34	71.69	52.28	208.45	69.94 (0.0525)
1953-7
Population (1000s)	24530	1996	2153	1850	1591	1579	1720	1868	1689	1831	1833	1667	1347	1096	890	676	441	216	87	7020	4008	23786
Deaths/year	16570	1	1	1	3	11	21	70	165	455	1094	2103	2951	3172	2931	2064	1072	361	95	3818	11117	15042
Rates/100 000		0.03	0.03	0.04	0.16	0.68	1.22	3.76	9.78	24.87	59.72	126.17	219.13	289.47	329.25	305.25	243.01	167.30	109.07	55.13	285.77	91.30 (0.0685)
1958-62
Population (1000s)	25318	2141	1969	2148	1833	1629	1657	1716	1850	1680	1798	1758	1560	1209	917	677	443	230	103	7085	4364	24542
Deaths/year	21106	0	1	1	3	7	23	61	175	420	1038	2200	3622	4273	3928	2921	1671	597	165	3833	14744	18672
Rates/100 000		0.02	0.04	0.04	0.16	0.43	1.36	3.53	9.47	25.00	57.76	125.16	232.18	353.38	428.10	431.62	377.48	259.83	160.24	54.35	361.32	111.22 (0.0834)
1963-67
Population (1000s)	26388	2417	2118	1965	2136	1834	1711	1701	1731	1851	1665	1727	1647	1402	1003	696	442	232	111	6974	4748	25603
Deaths/year	24976	1	0	1	5	8	19	48	157	414	917	2086	3758	5246	5143	3750	2237	908	278	3574	17897	21553
Rates/100 000		0.05	0.02	0.03	0.22	0.46	1.13	2.80	9.06	22.38	55.08	120.75	228.23	374.27	512.62	538.81	506.16	391.85	249.82	51.82	413.48	124.39 (0.0933)
1968-72
Population (1000s)	27009	2365	2372	2108	1972	2108	1827	1680	1654	1689	1796	1589	1620	1481	1173	758	457	240	119	6729	5031	26193
Deaths/year	28090	1	0	0	3	9	18	42	104	355	969	1774	3495	5470	6193	5018	2976	1220	443	3202	20175	23451
Rates/100 000		0.03	0.01	0.01	0.14	0.45	1.01	2.49	6.29	21.01	53.96	111.60	215.69	369.44	528.11	662.33	650.73	509.23	371.42	48.21	443.89	131.50 (0.0986)
1973-77
Population (1000s)	27201	2020	2314	2351	2117	1980	2072	1786	1628	1595	1637	1720	1483	1468	1257	896	501	248	128	6580	5103	26323
Deaths/year	29787	1	1	0	1	5	15	40	96	260	766	1829	3000	5053	6468	6115	3833	1689	613	2951	20637	23652
Rates/100 000		0.05	0.03	0.01	0.06	0.26	0.74	2.24	5.90	16.30	46.80	106.37	202.32	344.15	514.73	682.74	764.63	679.95	477.50	43.84	435.98	128.18 (0.0961)
1978-82
Population (1000s)	27266	1762	1997	2308	2352	2114	1938	2041	1763	1608	1564	1584	1626	1351	1258	982	605	277	136	6520	5217	26248
Deaths/year	30039	0	0	1	0	3	10	32	88	208	565	1459	3007	4271	6029	6441	4817	2254	854	2320	19748	22114
Rates/100 000		0.02	0.00	0.03	0.02	0.13	0.50	1.56	4.97	12.96	36.15	92.11	184.94	316.22	479.32	655.69	796.69	812.65	626.63	36.55	409.04	118.97 (0.0892)
1983-87
Population (1000s)	27578	1857	1759	1990	2336	2382	2078	1917	2042	1752	1577	1520	1508	1485	1171	1004	688	351	162	6890	5168	26378
Deaths/year	29209	0	0	0	1	2	6	21	83	197	467	1052	2393	4377	5129	6185	5201	2921	1173	1799	18085	19914
Rates/100 000		0.00	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.09	0.29	1.09	4.07	11.24	29.62	69.26	158.66	294.74	437.96	616.24	756.35	832.76	726.07	28.55	376.90	108.22 (0.0812)
1988-92
Population (1000s)	28065	1968	1876	1776	2007	2331	2374	2078	1910	2035	1723	1536	1455	1396	1307	947	720	414	213	7204	5105	26719
Deaths/year	26930	0	0	0	0	2	3	16	60	198	453	914	1786	3425	5258	5241	4885	3174	1515	1624	15709	17355
Rates/100 000		0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.09	0.13	0.77	3.13	9.72	26.26	59.51	122.78	245.40	402.30	553.20	678.27	767.28	712.46	24.66	330.92	94.89 (0.0712)
1993-97
Population (1000s)	28728	1955	1980	1888	1792	2035	2365	2408	2099	1915	2019	1688	1480	1362	1247	1080	704	448	262	7721	5169	27313
Deaths/year	23521	0	0	0	0	2	6	16	45	154	419	840	1512	2513	4071	5133	4170	3001	1640	1457	13230	14710
Rates/100 000		0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.11	0.24	0.65	2.13	8.02	20.74	49.74	102.18	184.53	326.52	475.24	592.54	669.39	625.04	20.16	272.12	78.01  (0.0585)

* Includes people for whom age was not known.

†Number in parentheses is the cumulative rate to age 75—that is, 75×rate/100 000.

 
Table C Lung cancer mortality among women in the United Kingdom, 1950-1997. Rates for ages 35-54, 55-74 and 0-74 are means of the rates in the component five year age ranges

Mean value	Age (years)
	All	0-4	5-	10-	15-	20-	25-	30-	35-	40-	45-	50-	55-	60-	65-	70-	75-	80-	85*	35-54	55-74	0-74†
1950-2
Population (1000s)	26125	2076	1856	1629	1618	1734	1883	1811	1915	1940	1853	1699	1521	1363	1181	940	625	320	162	7407	5005	25019
Deaths/year	2407	1	0	0	2	4	9	25	55	103	147	226	302	371	394	343	262	117	44	532	1411	1984
Rates/100 000		0.06	0.02	0.02	0.10	0.21	0.50	1.40	2.86	5.33	7.95	13.32	19.86	27.25	33.35	36.52	41.89	36.54	27.23	7.36	29.24	9.92 (0.0074)
1953-7
Population (1000s)	26454	1899	2056	1773	1628	1640	1733	1901	1752	1898	1894	1787	1607	1419	1224	990	695	371	186	7331	5241	25203
Deaths/year	2809	0	0	1	2	4	9	29	49	101	182	268	348	422	445	413	314	156	65	600	1628	2273
Rates/100 000		0.02	0.01	0.03	0.10	0.26	0.50	1.55	2.77	5.32	9.61	15.02	21.63	29.76	36.32	41.74	45.27	42.15	34.92	8.18	32.36	10.98 (0.0082)
1958-62
Population (1000s)	27110	2031	1877	2050	1790	1663	1637	1717	1884	1737	1872	1853	1722	1518	1295	1048	753	436	228	7346	5582	25693
Deaths/year	3544	1	0	1	1	4	8	25	64	119	218	341	452	544	546	508	401	217	93	743	2050	2833
Rates/100 000		0.04	0.00	0.03	0.08	0.24	0.49	1.46	3.40	6.88	11.67	18.40	26.25	35.84	42.18	48.50	53.25	49.87	40.74	10.09	38.19	13.03 (0.0098)
1963-67
Population (1000s)	27981	2294	2014	1872	2062	1832	1673	1633	1701	1860	1719	1836	1789	1628	1386	1114	809	481	278	7116	5917	26412
Deaths/year	4710	0	0	1	2	4	8	17	51	141	262	451	607	743	801	681	511	286	142	906	2832	3771
Rates/100 000		0.01	0.01	0.05	0.10	0.20	0.49	1.07	3.02	7.57	15.26	24.59	33.92	45.67	57.80	61.13	63.12	59.51	51.14	12.61	49.63	16.73 (0.0125)
1968-72
Population (1000s)	28586	2245	2253	2000	1899	2082	1796	1624	1604	1682	1827	1677	1765	1695	1493	1205	867	539	331	6790	6159	26848
Deaths/year	6095	0	0	0	1	2	6	16	49	135	315	516	772	979	1049	938	686	404	226	1015	3738	4778
Rates/100 000		0.01	0.00	0.02	0.05	0.10	0.36	0.96	3.04	8.04	17.24	30.76	43.72	57.74	70.27	77.83	79.13	75.05	68.28	14.77	62.39	20.68 (0.0155)
1973-77
Population (1000s)	28716	1909	2194	2231	2019	1912	2038	1744	1589	1575	1657	1788	1607	1668	1564	1309	950	576	387	6609	6149	26804
Deaths/year	7669	1	0	1	1	2	7	16	42	109	308	630	846	1249	1390	1243	952	540	333	1089	4728	5845
Rates/100 000		0.04	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.13	0.35	0.89	2.67	6.90	18.57	35.22	52.67	74.89	88.83	94.96	100.14	93.80	86.09	15.84	77.84	25.08 (0.0188)
1978-82
Population (1000s)	28779	1670	1889	2190	2246	2035	1899	2017	1736	1581	1560	1625	1731	1532	1544	1379	1055	655	435	6502	6186	26635
Deaths/year	9467	0	0	0	1	2	5	14	45	100	232	593	1086	1406	1761	1707	1299	777	438	971	5961	6953
Rates/100 000		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.10	0.28	0.68	2.62	6.33	14.86	36.51	62.74	91.82	114.07	123.75	123.13	118.74	100.65	15.08	98.10	30.25 (0.0227)
1983-87
Population (1000s)	29058	1766	1667	1883	2218	2309	2039	1891	2034	1732	1570	1535	1574	1642	1417	1368	1130	754	527	6872	6001	26646
Deaths/year	11267	0	0	0	0	1	4	13	49	105	225	433	999	1717	1968	2170	1795	1117	672	811	6854	7683
Rates/100 000		0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.19	0.69	2.39	6.05	14.34	28.18	63.47	104.62	138.88	158.54	158.82	148.15	127.49	12.74	116.38	34.49 (0.0259)
1988-92
Population (1000s)	29436	1871	1781	1680	1901	2240	2310	2044	1904	2028	1720	1546	1493	1505	1529	1262	1136	830	653	7199	5789	26816
Deaths/year	12483	0	0	0	1	1	4	11	35	127	246	436	797	1651	2382	2314	2135	1453	889	843	7145	8006
Rates/100 000		0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.06	0.16	0.52	1.84	6.25	14.29	28.19	53.40	109.70	155.77	183.36	187.91	175.00	136.10	12.64	125.56	36.91 (0.0277)
1993-97
Population (1000s)	29873	1860	1880	1789	1693	1934	2271	2327	2066	1908	2020	1699	1509	1435	1413	1376	1065	848	776	7694	5734	27184
Deaths/year	12894	1	0	0	1	0	2	9	36	113	274	475	727	1248	2125	2806	2260	1689	1128	898	6906	7817
Rates/100 000		0.04	0.00	0.02	0.04	0.02	0.08	0.40	1.75	5.94	13.54	27.95	48.19	86.94	150.37	203.84	212.16	199.23	145.28	12.30	122.33	35.94 (0.0270)

* Includes people for whom age was not known.

†Number in parentheses is the cumulative rate to age 75—that is, 75×rate/100 000.
 

§Mean of three biennial general household surveys.¹⁰

¶1998 general household survey only.¹⁰

 
Table D Smoothed lung cancer death rates per 10⁵ person-years among lifelong non-smokers during years 3-6 (1984-8) of the American Cancer Society’s second cancer prevention study (CPS-II)^{14 15}

	Age (years)								Cumulative risk (%) to age 75
	35-9	40-4	45-9	50-4	55-9	60-4	65-9	70-4
Men	2	3	5	7	10	14	20	27	0.44
Women	2	3	4	7	10	14	19	26	0.42

 
Table E Cumulative risks (%) of lung cancer by age 75 in the absence of other causes of death for 1990 study. Note the anomalously low rate among male lifelong non-smokers (compared with the cumulative risk of 0.4% by age 75 suggested by a large US prospective study) and the anomalously high rates in those currently smoking only pipes or cigars (among whom 88% of the cases had previously smoked cigarettes) and in those currently smoking fewer than 5 cigarettes a day (among whom 93% of the cases had previously smoked at least 15 cigarettes a day; several had smoked 30)

Smoking status	Men			Women
	No of cases/controls	Cumulative risk (95% CI)*		No of cases/controls	Cumulative risk (95% CI)*
Lifelong non-smoker†	3/400	0.2 (0.04 to 0.5)		24/542	0.4 (0.3 to 0.6)
Former cigarette smokers‡	242/900	—		94/317	—
Other former smokers‡	43/206	—		0/0	—
Current pipe/cigar only§	57/149	8.1 (5.8 to 10.4)		2/1	—
All current cigarette smokers¶	322/453	15.9 (14.4 to 17.3)		195/217	9.5 (8.4 to 10.6)
<5/day	20/43	10.4 (5.1 to 15.5)		8/22	3.4 (0.6 to 6.2)
5-14/day	108/180	12.8 (10.2 to 15.4)		63/82	7.7 (5.4 to 9.9)
15-24/day	126/169	16.7 (13.4 to 19.9)		86/92	10.4 (7.7 to 13.0)
25/day	68/61	24.4 (17.1 to 31.2)		38/21	18.5 (9.4 to 26.7)
Total	667/2108	—		315/1077	—

*Cumulative risk expressed as percentage; 95% confidence intervals are based on floated variance.

†Never as much as one cigarette per day for a year and never pipe or cigar regularly.

‡Stopped more than six months before illness (or, for population controls, interview).

§50 male cases and 120 male controls previously smoked cigarettes.

¶For current cigarette smokers who also smoked a pipe, pipe tobacco was converted to cigarette equivalents.⁸

 
Table F Comparisons of risk of lung cancer between current and former cigarette smokers in 1990 study

Smoking status	Men			Women
	Cases/ controls	Risk ratio (95% CI)*		Cases/ controls	Risk ratio (95% CI)*
Current cigarette smoker	322/453	1.00		195/217	1.00
Former cigarette smoker, by years stopped†
<10	118/236	0.66 (0.51 to 0.87)		68/93	0.69 (0.47 to 1.01)
10-19	81/243	0.42 (0.31 to 0.56)		18/80	0.21 (0.12 to 0.37)
20-29	28/198	0.18 (0.11 to 0.27)		8/144‡	0.05‡ (0.02 to 0.10)
30	15/223	0.08 (0.05 to 0.14)

*Risk ratio for former smoker versus current smoker adjusted for age.

†Restricted to former smokers whose most recent smoking habits included cigarettes.

‡Women who stopped 20 years ago.

 
Table G Results of 1990 study: comparison between cumulative risks to age 75 based on lung cancer death rates for the whole of United Kingdom with cumulative risks based on incidence of lung cancer in south west England. (Lung cancer rates in south-west England are about 75% of national rates and the majority of incident cases eventually cause death from the disease)

	Cumulative risks (%) based on whole UK			Cumulative risks (%) based on SW England
	Men	Women		Men	Women
Lifelong non-smoker	0.17*	0.42		0.13*	0.32
Current pipe or cigar smoker only	8.1	—		6.1	—
All current cigarette smokers	15.9	9.5		11.9	7.2
<5/day	10.4	3.4		7.8	2.6
5-14/day	12.8	7.7		9.6	5.8
15-24/day	16.7	10.4		12.6	7.9
25/day	24.4	18.5		18.6	14.2
Former cigarette smoker, by age stopped:
60	9.9	5.3		7.4	4.0
50	6.0	2.2		4.4	1.7
40	3.0	0.8		2.2	0.7
30	1.7	†		1.2	†
United States non-smoker	0.4	0.4		0.4	0.4

*May be too low.

†Numbers too small to be reliable.
 

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