Widespread smoking cessation has halved UK lung cancer mortality

The link between smoking and lung cancer was established by the early 1950s, but the original studies could not determine the effects of really prolonged cigarette smoking or of really prolonged cessation. On p 323 Peto et al compare the results of two case-control studies of smoking and lung cancer carried out in 1950 and 1990. The result shows that cigarette smoking, when continued over a long period, causes a greater risk than was originally thought. By the time of the 1990 study, however, many people had stopped smoking, and the risk of dying from the disease was shown to decrease progressively, in comparison with that in continuing smokers, with the amount of time since smoking stopped. Corresponding with this change, male mortality from lung cancer in the United Kingdom has fallen sharply.

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Smoking, smoking cessation, and lung cancer in the UK since 1950: combination of national statistics with two case-control studies

Richard Peto, Sarah Darby, Harz Deo, Paul Silcocks, Elise Whitley, and Richard Doll
BMJ 2000 321: 323-329. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]