News

Spain faces massive decline in population

Xavier Bosch , Barcelona

The Spanish population will decrease by 9.4 million in the next 50 years, according to a report released last month by the United Nations' population division. This represents a 24% net loss in its current population.

The reason is the low birth rate of the country, which at 1.2 children per woman is one of the lowest in the world.

Joseph Chamie, director of the UN population division, said: "In 2050, Spain will be the country with the highest percentage of old people in the world." Currently, the over 65 age group makes up 17% of the Spanish population. If current trends continue, this will rise to 37% by 2050, which represents a total increase of 117% of this age group by that year.

Although Spain's situation is the most extreme, it is mirrored by developments elsewhere in Europe. The number of people aged over 65 is going to increase, in the same period, by 104% in Switzerland, 92% in Italy, 73% in Germany, and 56% in the United Kingdom.

To maintain a constant population size, Spain should accept an average of 170000 immigrants a year during the next 50 years. However, to maintain a constant working age population (15-64 years), an average of 260000 immigrants a year would be needed.

Moreover, to maintain the current potential support ratio (the number of people of working age per older person), Spain should accept an annual average of 1.58 million immigrants until 2050. This figure is totally "unattainable," said Mr Chamie. "Clearly, it is impossible to sort out the problem of the progressive ageing of the Spanish population by means of immigration. Other European countries such as Italy and Germany will cope with a similar handicap," he said.

The UN report, Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?, examines the situation of low fertility countries (those with fewer than 2.1 children per woman) and tries to find out whether replacement migration (international migration needed by a country to prevent population decline and ageing resulting from low fertility and mortality rates) may be a solution.

According to the report, the populations of most developed countries are projected to become smaller and older as a result of low fertility and increased longevity. Italy is projected to register one of the largest population declines in relative terms, losing 28% of its population between 1995 and 2005. By 2050, 35% of Italians will be aged over 65, compared with 18% today.

Thus, by that date, Spain and Italy will be the countries with the highest proportions of elderly people in the world (37% and 35% respectively). To maintain the size of its working age population, Italy would require 6500 immigrants per million inhabitants annually; Germany would need 6000 per million inhabitants.

The report indicates that population decline is inevitable in Europe in the absence of replacement migration. Although fertility may increase again in the coming decades, "few believe that it will recover sufficiently in most countries to reach replacement level in the foreseeable future."

The report says, however, that maintaining potential support ratios at current levels through replacement migration alone seems out of reach "because of the extraordinarily large numbers of immigrants that would be required."

Hence, said Mr Chamie, "if we rule out massive immigration, the only solution to maintain the potential support ratios at current levels in most European countries would be to increase the upper limit of the working age population to roughly 75 years of age."

Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populationsis available at www.un.org/esa/population/migration.htm.

Italy and Spain face reductions of a quarter in their populations