Doctors are overoptimistic in predicting survival for patients with cancer

Some small studies have suggested that doctors' predictions of survival in patients with cancer are often wrong. Christakis and Lamont asked the doctors of 468 terminally ill patients to provide survival estimates for their patients and correlated these with patients' actual survival and patient and doctor characteristics (p 469). Only 20% of predictions were within 33% of actual survival: 63% were overoptimistic and 17% overpessimistic. Doctors with most experience were more accurate, but those who had known the patient for longer were less so.

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Relevant Article

Extent and determinants of error in doctors' prognoses in terminally ill patients: prospective cohort study • Commentary: Why do doctors overestimate? • Commentary: Prognoses should be based on proved indices not intuition

Nicholas A Christakis, Elizabeth B Lamont, Julia L Smith, and Colin Murray Parkes
BMJ 2000 320: 469-473. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]