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M J Postma a National Institute of Public Health and the Environment,
PO Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands Department of Health
Services Research, b Department of
Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, c Imperial College School of
Medicine (St Mary's Campus), London W2 1PG Department of
Epidemiology and Public Health, d Department of Paediatrics, e Department of Primary Care and
Population Science, Royal Free Hospital School of Medicine, London NW3
2PF
Correspondence
to: Dr Beck e.beck{at}ic.ac.uk
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Abstract |
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Objective:
To estimate the cost effectiveness of
universal, voluntary HIV screening of pregnant women in England.
Design:
Cost effectiveness analysis. Cost estimates of
caring for HIV positive children were based on the stage of HIV
infection and calculated using data obtained from a London hospital
between 1986 and 1996. These were combined with estimates of the health
benefits and costs of antenatal screening so that the cost
effectiveness of universal, voluntary antenatal screening for HIV
infection in England could be estimated.
Main outcome measures:
Lifetime, direct costs of
medical care of childhood HIV infection; life years gained as a result
of the screening programme; net cost per life year gained for different pretest counselling costs; and different prevalence rates of pregnant women who were unaware that they were HIV positive.
Results:
Estimated direct lifetime medical and social care costs of childhood HIV infection were £178 300 using a 5% discount rate for time preference (1995-6 prices). In high prevalence areas screening pregnant women for HIV is estimated to be a cost effective intervention with a net cost of less than £4000 for each
life year gained. For areas with comparatively low prevalence rates,
cost effectiveness could be less than £20 000 per life year gained,
depending on the number of pregnant women who are unaware that they are
infected and local screening costs.
Conclusions:
Our results confirm recent
recommendations that universal, voluntary antenatal HIV screening
should be implemented in the London area. Serious consideration of the
policy should be given for other areas in England depending on local
prevalence and screening costs.
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Key Messages
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Introduction |
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In England the uptake of antenatal HIV screening is comparatively
low despite the existence of guidelines on antenatal screening for
pregnant women.1 Detection of HIV infection in pregnant women allows the risk of mother to child transmission to be
reduced.2-4 This study analyses the cost effectiveness of
an antenatal HIV screening programme.
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Methods |
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We assessed the cost effectiveness of universal, voluntary HIV screening of pregnant women in England in terms of healthcare costs to the NHS. A staged, progression of disease model was developed using clinical and epidemiological data and estimates of the cost of caring for children with HIV calculated between 1986 and 1996.5-6 The analysis is based on the effects of testing one pregnant woman who is unaware that she is infected with HIV, and we excluded from the analysis women who request an HIV test during pregnancy. Effectiveness was measured in terms of life years gained among children in whom infection with HIV was averted and in life years gained because of earlier antiretroviral treatment of the mothers. Costs considered included those of serological screening for HIV antibodies, pretest and post-test discussions and counselling, antiretroviral treatment, elective caesarean section, and the additional cost of formula feeding compared with breast feeding.
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The probabilities for mother to child transmission used within the model were 14% for breast feeding,2 18% during pregnancy and vaginal delivery in the absence of zidovudine treatment,3 10% during pregnancy and caesarean delivery without zidovudine,3 8% with zidovudine treatment for the mother during pregnancy and for the child with a vaginal delivery,4 and a 6% transmission rate was assumed for zidovudine treatment and a caesarean delivery. Independent probabilities were assumed for breast feeding and delivery. The zidovudine regimen used in the model was similar to AIDS clinical trials group protocol 076.4 In the absence of preventive measures the probability of mother to child transmission was calculated to be 29%, which decreased to 23% if a caesarean section was performed, and to 6% if all preventive measures were implemented.2-4 Four clinical stages of HIV infection were considered: indeterminate, asymptomatic, symptomatic non-AIDS, and AIDS.7 The duration of stay within each clinical stage was assumed to be exponentially distributed (fig 1). Transition rates between the stages are described in figure 1.
The lifetime costs of hospital and community care for a child infected with HIV were estimated at £178 300 for the 1993-4 financial year indexed to 1995-6 prices8 and were discounted at 5% (3% and 7% in the sensitivity analyses).9 Lifetime costs of caring for a child infected with HIV were varied in the sensitivity analysis.
We assumed that the uptake of zidovudine among HIV positive pregnant women was 75% and that elective caesarean sections occurred in 40% of deliveries in HIV positive women.10-11 The rate of emergency caesarean sections among HIV positive women was assumed to be similar to that of the general population, namely 15% of deliveries. Among women known to be HIV positive, we assumed that 95% would refrain from breast feeding compared with 23% in the general population.10-11 In the sensitivity analysis lower and higher uptakes of these interventions were considered.
The cost of 20 weeks' treatment with zidovudine (14 weeks for the
mother and 6 for the child) is £600 ($960), 91% of which is for
zidovudine taken during pregnancy, 8% for zidovudine during delivery,
and 1% for zidovudine given to the newborn. The cost of a vaginal
delivery is £400; an elective caesarean costs £1100, and an emergency
caesarean costs £1300.12 In this model the first test was
an enzyme linked immunosorbent assay with 100% sensitivity and 99.9%
specificity; it was followed by a set of confirmatory enzyme linked
immunosorbent assays. The costs for these tests were estimated at £4
per woman (T Oliver, personal communication). False positive results
from the first round were considered in the costing; false positive
results after all tests were completed were not considered. The current
costs of screening and pretest counselling were estimated at
£40.13 Costs below £40 reflect a situation in which
universal screening for HIV is integrated into routine antenatal care.
For illustrative purposes an evaluation at marginal costs
that is,
test costs only
was included. The cost of counselling women who tested
positive for HIV infection was set at £50. The additional cost of
formula feeding over breast feeding was estimated to be £800 (table
1).14
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Cost effectiveness was expressed as net cost per life year gained. The
net cost comprised the total costs of antenatal screening minus the
screening benefits of averted health care for children infected with
HIV. Life years gained were calculated by comparing life years lost due
to HIV infection with and without antenatal screening. Seventy life
years lost is equal to the remaining life expectancy at age 7; this is
the estimated average age of death for a child infected with HIV. Life
years gained were discounted but as discounting health benefits is
controversial,15 non-discounted life years gained are also
presented. A gain of one year was assumed to reflect the health benefit
for HIV positive mothers of starting antiretroviral treatment earlier.
As most mothers would be asymptomatic, the costs of triple therapy
for the mother with a protease inhibitor were included at £12 300 per
patient year16; this combination therapy was used in the
model as it has the highest cost.16 However, as the
intermediate and long term benefits of triple therapy are unknown, cost
estimates for long term treatment with triple therapy were not
included. The assumptions of the impact of screening on the mother were
investigated in the sensitivity analysis.
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Results |
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Reference case
For the reference case the cost per life year gained varied from a
situation of cost savings to a cost of £114 000 (fig 2, table 2). If
more than one woman in every 10 000 pregnancies is unaware that she is
HIV positive and the costs of screening are below £40, better cost
effectiveness ratios are achieved. For example, if the prevalence of
HIV among pregnant women is 10/10 000
pregnancies, the net cost for each life year gained is £7300 when
screening costs £40; the net cost for each life year gained is
£10 200 when there is a prevalence of 5/10 000 pregnancies and
screening costs £25. If screening costs fall further then situations
of cost savings become possible. For example, if the screening costs
are below £8 per woman at a prevalence of 5/10 000 pregnancies then
screening becomes cost saving. If the prevalence is 15/10 000
pregnancies then universal antenatal screening costs £3300 per life
year gained when screening costs
£40.
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Sensitivity analysis
Relevant parameters were varied between low (1/10 000) and high
prevalences (15/10 000) of women unaware that they were HIV positive
and low and high screening costs (£4 and £40 respectively). Major
improvements in cost effectiveness are found when the discount rate is
lowered to 3%, when life years gained are not discounted, and when
there is a high lifetime cost of paediatric HIV care (table 2).
Assuming that two life years are gained instead of one for the mother
results in an improvement in cost effectiveness only for the situation
of low prevalence and high screening costs. In the other situations the
costs of treatment during the life years gained caused a
lessening in cost effectiveness. If there are no life years gained for
the mother whose infection is detected by the programme, then screening
becomes cost saving at current screening costs and a prevalence of
15/10 000. This reflects the cost effectiveness of that part of the screening programme that focuses on reducing the transmission of
infection from mother to child. The high prevalence combinations that
were cost saving in the reference case remain cost saving. The
sensitivity analysis shows that adequate uptake of interventions is
crucial in achieving good cost effectiveness and that cost
effectiveness is sensitive for the lifetime costs of caring for a child
infected with HIV if the prevalence is high or test costs are low.
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Discussion |
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In situations in which the prevalence of pregnant women who are unaware that they are HIV positive is greater than 5/10 000 pregnancies and screening costs are £40 per test, screening for HIV infection might be a cost effective intervention with a net cost per life year gained of less than £20 000. With a prevalence of 14/10 000 pregnancies universal antenatal screening would cost £3900 per discounted life year gained, £1000 per non-discounted life year gained, and would be cost saving at screening costs below £22. This compares to costs of about £2500 per non-discounted life year gained for both antenatal screening for hepatitis B and the NHS breast screening programme.18-19 Universal, voluntary antenatal HIV screening would be a cost effective intervention in London.
In areas of low prevalence where 1 pregnant woman per 10 000 pregnancies is unaware of being infected with HIV and when screening costs are less than £15 the cost per life year gained is less than £40 000. For regions with a prevalence of 3/10 000 pregnancies, screening costs of less than £25 bring the cost per life year gained to below £20 000. Universal antenatal HIV screening seems to be cost effective for some regions outside London.
The cut off point at which the cost for each life year gained becomes acceptable differs over time and between societies. One Canadian article placed this point at $C20 000 per life year gained,20 whereas the point in the United States currently is around $US50 000 per life year gained.21 No cut off point has yet been defined for England, although one has recently been defined in terms of seroprevalence.22
Limitations of the model
The costs of terminating a pregnancy for reasons related to HIV
were not incorporated into the model. Since the costs of terminating a
pregnancy are below £500, their inclusion would make the cost
effectiveness ratios more favourable.
Conclusion
Since the incidence of mother to child transmission of HIV can
successfully be reduced, the introduction of universal, voluntary
antenatal screening needs to be considered. The availability of
reliable cost estimates of treatment for HIV positive children enabled
the first cost effectiveness assessment of antenatal screening for HIV
in England to be performed.5-6 Although uncertainties remain and more detailed information is needed to further develop assessments of cost effectiveness, the results presented to date indicate that in areas of high prevalence, such as London, universal, voluntary antenatal screening of pregnant women is cost effective. For
areas of lower prevalence the cost effectiveness of such screening programmes could be well below £20 000 per life year gained;
antenatal screening for HIV should be considered depending on possible
reductions in screening costs and local prevalence rates. These
conclusions confirm the recent recommendations of the Intercollegiate
Working Party for Enhancing Voluntary Confidential HIV Screening in
Pregnancy.27
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Acknowledgments |
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The authors thank Jeni Beecham, Margaret Brandeau, Miranda Mugford, Marie-Louise Newell, Angus Nicoll, Tony Oliver, Doug Owens, and Richard Smith, as well as our referees for their invaluable assistance at various stages of the study.
Contributors: MJP and EJB conceived the idea for the project. MJP developed the cost effectiveness model in conjunction with EJB, SM, LS, MDSW, HH, and JCJ. EJB and SM provided the cost data that were used in the model. LS provided particular input on the social context. MDSW provided specific input on the clinical context relevant to the analyses as well as providing clinical care to many of the children who participated in the original study. MJP and EJB were primarily responsible for writing the paper; the paper was written in conjunction with SM, LS, MDSW, HH, and JCJ. MJP and EJB are guarantors of the study.
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Footnotes |
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Funding: European Union Concerted Action on Multinational AIDS Scenarios (contract No BMH1-CT94-1723).
Competing interests: None declared.
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References |
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(Accepted 24 February 1998)
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