Persistent back pain can be predicted

Although most episodes of acute low back pain presenting to primary care resolve quickly, some people develop recurrent and disabling symptoms. To identify predictors of a chronic state Thomas et al report on a follow up study of 180 patients with low back pain (p 1662). They found that over 30% had persistent disabling low back pain over the 12 month follow up period and poor outcome could be predicted by factors present before the onset of pain and those related directly to the episode of pain. When a group of six factors was used to classify patients, the proportion with poor outcome ranged from 6% to 70%.

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Relevant Article

Predicting who develops chronic low back pain in primary care: a prospective study

Elaine Thomas, Alan J Silman, Peter R Croft, Ann C Papageorgiou, Malcolm I V Jayson, and Gary J Macfarlane
BMJ 1999 318: 1662-1667. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]