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Colin Baigent Clinical Trial Service Unit
and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Clinical
Medicine, Radcliffe Infirmary, Oxford OX2 6HE
Correspondence to: Dr Baigent
colin.baigent{at}ctsu.ox.ac.uk
Objective: To assess effects of intravenous
streptokinase, one month of oral aspirin, or both, on long term
survival after suspected acute myocardial infarction.
The second international study of infarct survival (ISIS-2) in
17 187 patients with suspected acute myocardial
infarction,1 together with the other large randomised
trials,2-9 showed unequivocally that, in suitable
patients, fibrinolytic therapy reduces early mortality. The
Fibrinolytic Therapy Trialists' collaborative overview of their
results indicates that treatment of 1000 patients who present with ST
elevation or bundle branch block up to at least 12 hours from the onset
of symptoms typically prevents about 20-30 deaths during the first
month (30 per 1000 patients treated within 0-6 hours and 20 per 1000 treated within 7-12 hours of onset of symptoms).10 ISIS-2
also showed that the benefits of early treatment with aspirin were
largely independent of, and additive to, those of fibrinolytic therapy.
For every 1000 patients treated with one month of medium dose aspirin
(such as 162 mg daily), about 25 deaths and 10-15 non-fatal
reinfarctions or strokes were avoided during the first
month.1
Follow up of some of the larger trials of fibrinolytic therapy has
shown reliably that a substantial survival benefit is maintained for at
least the first 6-12 months.
1 11-13
Longer term follow up, however, has been reported only on much smaller numbers: just over
1000 randomised patients in the APSAC intervention mortality study
(AIMS)14 and smaller numbers in a few other
studies.15-17 These have suggested that the early
survival benefits persist with prolonged follow up18 or
may even increase in certain types of patient (such as those treated
early after onset of symptoms
19 20
and those with
anterior infarction
15 16
), but there were relatively few
deaths after the first year of follow up in those trials. Hence, the
chief aim of this report of extended follow up in the large ISIS-2
trial is to provide more reliable estimates of the long term effects of
fibrinolytic therapy, as well as of a short course of aspirin, both
overall and among particular categories of patient.
Eligibility and randomisation
Treatment
Recruitment and follow up
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Abstract
Top
Abstract
Introduction
Results
Discussion
References
Design: Randomised, "2×2 factorial," placebo
controlled trial.
Setting: 417 hospitals in 16 countries.
Subjects: 17 187 patients with suspected acute
myocardial infarction randomised between March 1985 and December 1987. Follow up of vital status complete to at least 1 January 1990 for 95%
of all patients and to mid-1997 for the 6213 patients in United
Kingdom.
Interventions: Intravenous streptokinase (1.5 MU in 1 hour) and oral aspirin (162 mg daily for 1 month) versus matching placebos.
Main outcome measures: Mortality from all causes
during up to 10 years' follow up, with subgroup analyses based on 4 year follow up.
Results: After randomisation, 1841 deaths were
recorded in days 0-35, 991 from day 36 to end of year 1, 1478 in years 2-4, and 1230 in years 5-10. Allocation to streptokinase was associated with 29 (95% confidence interval 20 to 38) fewer deaths per 1000 patients during days 0-35. This early benefit persisted (death rate
ratio 0.98 (0.92 to 1.04) for additional deaths between day 36 and end
of year 10), so that there were 28 (14 to 42) and 23 (2 to 44) fewer
deaths per 1000 patients treated with streptokinase after 4 years and
10 years respectively. There was no evidence that absolute survival
benefit increased with prolonged follow up among any category of
patient, including those presenting early after symptoms started or
with anterior ST elevation. Nor did the early benefits seem to be lost
in any category (including those aged over 70). Allocation to one month
of aspirin was associated with 26 (16 to 35) fewer deaths per 1000 during first 35 days, with little further benefit or loss during
subsequent years (death rate ratio 0.99 (0.93 to 1.06) between day 36 and end of year 10). The early benefit obtained with combination of
streptokinase and one month of aspirin also seemed to persist long
term.
Conclusions: The early survival advantages produced
by fibrinolytic therapy and one month of aspirin started in acute myocardial infarction seem to be maintained for at least 10 years.
Key messages
![]()
Introduction
Top
Abstract
Introduction
Results
Discussion
References
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Patients and methods
The design of ISIS-2 has previously been described in
detail.1 Patients were eligible if they were within 24 hours of the onset of symptoms of suspected myocardial infarction, with
no clear indications for, or contraindications to, streptokinase or
aspirin. Electrocardiographic changes at entry were not a requirement (although a pre-randomisation electrocardiogram was required for central reading), and no age restriction was imposed by the protocol. Entry to the study was by telephone to central, 24 hour, randomisation services.
A "2×2 factorial" study design was used. Half of all
patients were allocated randomly to receive 1.5 MU streptokinase and half to receive matching placebo, infused intravenously over about 1 hour. Half of all patients were also allocated randomly to receive oral aspirin (exact dose 162.5 mg in enteric coated tablets) and half
to receive matching placebo, given daily for 1 month from a calendar
pack. In all other respects physicians were free to use whatever
additional treatment they considered necessary. Compliance with
allocated treatment was high,1 but, irrespective of
whether the study treatment was actually given, patients remained in
their originally allocated treatment group for an intention to treat analysis (see below).
Between 5 March 1985 and 31 December 1987, a total of 17 187
patients were randomised by 417 hospitals in 16 countries (see acknowledgements in original report1). This large size
ensured good balance between the treatment groups for the main
pre-randomisation features that were measured (aided by a
"minimisation" balancing algorithm21) and should do
likewise for those that were not.
and, even
among those few deaths, some may have been partly or wholly due to
vascular causes. Hence, the present report is of deaths from any cause.
Principal comparisons and statistical methods
The two principal comparisons were of mortality among all those
allocated the one hour infusion of streptokinase versus that among all
those allocated placebo infusion, and of mortality among all those
allocated one month of aspirin tablets versus that among all those
allocated placebo tablets. These comparisons were analysed in three
main ways, all of which take appropriate and unbiased account of the
duration of follow up for each patient.
day 36 to end of year 1; annually thereafter to end of year
4 (that is, years 2, 3, and 4 separately); years 5 and 6 combined; and
years 7 to 10 combined.
Third, the absolute differences in life table estimates of survival
were calculated at 35 days and after 4 years of follow up (at which
time the proportion of patients with follow up was still substantial
enough to provide stable estimates in certain subgroups). Two sided P
values are cited, and 2P>0.1 is generally considered not significant.
We used 95% confidence intervals for overall analyses and 99%
confidence intervals for subgroup analyses to make some allowance for
the effects of multiple comparisons.
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Results |
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Intravenous streptokinase (8592 patients) v
placebo infusion (8595 patients)
Overall effects on 4 year and 10 year survival
During the first 35 days of follow up, allocation to
streptokinase was associated with a highly significant death rate ratio of 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.69 to 0.83; 2P<0.0001) (fig 1).
This corresponds to prevention of about a quarter of the early deaths,
and to an absolute improvement of 29 (20 to 38) fewer deaths per 1000 patients treated (table). Between day 36 and the end of the first year,
allocation to streptokinase was associated with a smaller, and not
conventionally significant, additional reduction in death (death rate
ratio 0.89 (99% confidence interval 0.75 to 1.05); 2P=0.06) (fig 1).
During each of the three subsequent years of follow up, allocation
to streptokinase was not associated with any significant difference in
death rate. After 4 years of follow up there were still 28 (95%
confidence interval 14 to 42) fewer deaths per 1000 patients who had
been treated with streptokinase (table).
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During year 5, follow up was available both for those patients who had been randomised during the first 9 months of recruitment in any participating country and for all survivors in the United Kingdom. Follow up in subsequent years was exclusively among these British survivors, with substantial numbers of deaths recorded in this smaller cohort during this period (fig 1). There was still no significant difference in subsequent death rates between the treatment groups, either in years 5-6 (death rate ratio 0.94 (99% confidence interval 0.76 to 1.17)) or in years 7-10 (death rate ratio 1.02 (0.84 to 1.24)) (fig 1). Overall, between day 36 and the end of year 10, streptokinase was not associated with any additional difference in mortality (death rate ratio 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 1.04); 2P>0.1). Hence, after the large divergence in survival during days 0-35, a slight divergence during the rest of the first year was balanced by a slight convergence in subsequent years (fig 2).
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Effects on 4 year survival in particular categories of patient
Substantial numbers of the patients have been followed for at
least 4 years, which allows a reasonably reliable assessment of the
effects of fibrinolytic therapy on 4 year survival among particular
subgroups (table).
Among patients randomised within 0-6 hours of the onset of symptoms, the absolute benefit of 31 (99% confidence interval 9 to 54) fewer deaths per 1000 at the end of year 4 was about the same as it had been at day 35 (34 (19 to 50) fewer per 1000) (fig 3a). Thus, the additional deaths after day 35 were not much affected by whether or not streptokinase had been given (death rate ratio 0.99 (0.86 to 1.13) between day 36 and the end of year 4; 2P>0.1). The same was true when attention was further restricted just to those who had been randomised 0-3 hours after symptoms started (death rate ratio 0.93 (0.76 to 1.13) between day 36 and the end of year 4; 2P>0.1). Similarly, there was no evidence of any later survival gains among patients presenting with anterior ST elevation (death rate ratio 0.99 (0.80 to 1.21) between day 36 and the end of year 4; 2P>0.1) (fig 3b). Consequently, the absolute benefit at the end of year 4 for patients with anterior ST elevation was still about the same as it had been at day 35 (table), even when such patients presenting within 6 hours of symptoms starting were considered separately (fig 3c).
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Although about half of the patients aged 70 or over at entry died
within 4 years of randomisation, the early benefit persisted. Indeed,
the absolute reduction in 4 year mortality with streptokinase seemed to
be at least as great among those aged 70 or over (41 (
7 to 89) fewer
deaths per 1000) as among those aged less than 70 (23 (4 to 42) fewer
deaths per 1000) (table, fig 3d).
Oral aspirin (8587 patients) v placebo tablets
(8600 patients)
During the first 35 days of follow up, allocation to one month of
oral aspirin was associated with a highly significant death rate ratio
of 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.85; 2P<0.0001) (fig 4).
This corresponds to prevention of about a quarter of the early deaths
and to an absolute improvement of 26 (16 to 35) fewer deaths per 1000 patients treated. Between day 36 and the end of year 1, and for each of
the five subsequent periods that were considered, the use of aspirin
during the first month (that is, before day 36) was not associated with
any significant additional difference in the death rate (fig 4). Hence,
all of the survival benefit of an early, one month course of oral
aspirin seemed to accrue during the first month, with little further
benefit or loss during subsequent years (death rate ratio 0.99 (0.93 to
1.06) between day 36 and the end of year 10; 2P>0.1) (figs 4 and
5).
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Combination of streptokinase and aspirin
The original report of ISIS-2 showed that the early benefits of
streptokinase and of aspirin were approximately additive,1 and the same now seems to be true of the long term benefits. At the end
of year 4, the absolute benefits of streptokinase were still similar
among patients who had been allocated to aspirin (24 (99% confidence
interval
1 to 49) fewer deaths per 1000 patients allocated
streptokinase plus aspirin compared with aspirin alone) and among
patients who had not been allocated aspirin (32 (6 to 58) fewer deaths
per 1000 allocated streptokinase alone rather than double placebo)
(table). Overall, between day 36 and the end of year 10, allocation to
the combination of streptokinase plus aspirin was not associated with
any additional benefit (death rate ratio 0.97 (95% confidence interval
0.89 to 1.06); 2P>0.1) compared with allocation to neither. Hence, the
early survival benefit obtained with the combination (55 (42 to 68)
fewer deaths per 1000 at day 35) persisted largely unaltered in the
longer term (42 (13 to 71) fewer deaths per 1000 at 10 years) (fig 6).
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Discussion |
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Long term effects of intravenous fibrinolytic therapy
Large randomised trials had previously shown that the survival
benefits of fibrinolytic therapy persist for at least a year after
treatment.
1 11-13
But information about the longer term persistence of these benefits was limited to studies that recorded relatively few later deaths. By contrast, this report involves about
1500 deaths between the start of the second year and the end of the
fourth year after fibrinolytic therapy and a further 1200 deaths in the
subsequent period up to 10 years. Hence, it provides reliable evidence
about the persistence of the early survival advantages.
which is likely to encompass most of the patients studied in
ISIS-2 and other trials of fibrinolytic therapy
should probably not be
expected to translate into much further difference in later mortality.
This conclusion is supported by the present results, but that does not
rule out the possibility that the absolute benefits of fibrinolytic
therapy might increase with prolonged follow up in some particular
group of patients at very high
risk.
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particularly since ISIS-2 now
indicates that the absolute survival advantage after several years is
at least as great among older as among younger patients.
Long term effects of oral aspirin
ISIS-2 is the only large randomised trial to have assessed the
effects on mortality of a short course of medium dose (162 mg daily)
oral aspirin started immediately during suspected acute myocardial
infarction. One month of aspirin treatment was associated with a highly
significant absolute improvement in survival at 35 days which still
persisted after several years, and the long term benefits of short term
aspirin treatment and of fibrinolytic therapy were approximately
additive. ISIS-2 did not assess the additional effects of continuing
aspirin treatment after the first month (which would, in such a blinded
study, have occurred to a similar extent among those who had been
allocated aspirin or placebo tablets for the first month). The long
term benefits of prolonged antiplatelet treatment started later after
myocardial infarction have, however, been shown by the Antiplatelet
Trialists' collaborative overview of 11 randomised trials, chiefly
involving aspirin, in which 36 (SD 6) serious vascular events (that is, myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death) were avoided per 1000 survivors of myocardial infarction treated for about two years, with
the likelihood of additional benefits from even longer
treatment.32
Conclusion
Long term follow up of the large number of patients in ISIS-2
provides clear evidence that the early survival advantage produced by
fibrinolytic therapy in acute myocardial infarction persists for many
years after treatment. The early survival advantage with the short term
aspirin regimen studied also persisted long term, and this prolonged
benefit was additive to that of fibrinolytic therapy. Moreover,
studies of prolonged antiplatelet treatment after myocardial infarction
indicate that these benefits can be increased further by continuing
aspirin treatment for some years after myocardial
infarction.
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Acknowledgments |
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The chief acknowledgement is to the 17 187 patients who agreed to participate.
Contributors: The most important contributors are the thousands of doctors and nurses in the 417 participating hospitals who collaborated with the national coordinators in each country (see original report1 for list of participating centres and investigators). The study and its long term follow up were coordinated by the Steering Committee of ISIS-2: D Hunt, J Varigos (Australia); F Dienstl, P Lechleitner (Austria); G De Backer, M Kornitzer (Belgium); J Cairns, A G Turpie (Canada); F Pedersen, E Sandoe, J Kyst Madsen (Denmark); R Kala, J Heikkilä (Finland); J-P Boissel, A Leizorovicz (France); R Schröder (Germany); J Horgan, D O'Callaghan (Ireland); G Tognoni, M G Franzosi (Italy, GISSI liaison); H White (New Zealand); J Kjekshus, A Reikvam, J Kahrs (Norway); V Valentin (Spain); L Wilhelmsen, L Lundkvist (Sweden); R Malacrida, M Genoni, T Moccetti (Switzerland); R Collins, P Sleight, R Peto, S Parish, C Baigent, P Dove, S Cederholm Williams (United Kingdom); C Hennekens, S Yusuf (United States). Gale Mead and Cathy Harwood typed the manuscript, and Heather Halls, Deborah Jackson, and Rosemarie Schroder assisted with long term follow up. The listed authors, who are guarantors of the paper, analysed the present results and wrote this manuscript in collaboration with the steering committee on behalf of the ISIS-2 Collaborative Group.
Funding: The original study was supported by Behringwerke, a subsidiary of Hoechst, the makers of the streptokinase used, with aspirin and its placebo donated by Sterling Drugs. The study was, however, designed, conducted, analysed and interpreted independently of the companies, and the present long term follow up was made possible by support from the British Heart Foundation and UK Medical Research Council.
Conflict of interest: None.
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References |
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(Accepted 2 February 1998)
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