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BMJ 2007;335:1110 (1 December), doi:10.1136/bmj.39409.501817.BE
| The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below. |
Almost everyone agrees that human production of greenhouse gases is driving global warming—more quickly than anticipated.1 The latest summary of the scientific evidence by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that by 2030 the earth will warm by 2.0°C—the tipping point at which warming may lead to more warming.2 Temperatures may rise by 6.4°C this century.
In Bali, world leaders will try to agree how to limit this rise. It is imperative that they do. The IPCC predicts increased death and injury due to heatwaves, floods, storms, fires, and droughts. Cardiorespiratory disease will increase because of higher ozone concentrations. Freshwater and saltwater flooding will increase the spread of diarrhoea.3 By 2100, the number of people exposed to malaria prone temperatures may increase by a third. Water availability will suffer. Subsistence agriculture will fail through changes to the climate and ecosystem collapse. Hunger, migration, and war may also be
Alan Maryon-Davis, president1, Ian Gilmore, president2, Patricia Hamilton, president3
1 Faculty of Public Health, London NW1 4LB, 2 Royal College of Physicians, London NW1 4LE, 3 Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, London W1W 6DE
President@fph.org.uk
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