BMJ  2007;334:570-571 (17 March), doi:10.1136/bmj.39129.397373.BE

Analysis

Who will care for the oldest people in our ageing society?

Department of Rehabilitation and Geriatrics, Geneva Medical School and University Hospitals, 1226 Thonex-Geneva, Switzerland

The number of informal carers for frail elderly people is set to fall steeply. Jean-Marie Robine and colleagues propose a new way to assess the trend that should help policy makers plan for the deficit

The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below.

Medical journals usually focus on the most dramatic consequences of population ageing,^{1 2 3 4} such as the effect on financing of health care.^{5 6} Many people fear that population ageing will generate a demand for long term care that will outpace the supply of formal care.^{7 8} Of course, unremitting prevention of disability could reduce demand,⁹ but the effect of a decline in disability on the solvency of social security programmes is still debated.¹⁰ This debate does not consider the quality of long term care or the availability of families to care for frail elderly people.^{11 12} We describe an indicator to monitor potential informal care resources using American and Swiss data as examples.

Most studies of population ageing use demographic indicators based on a three age group population model—young people, those of working age, and elderly people. This model does not reflect the current population changes.¹³ Indeed, the demographic dependency ratio (the ratio of . . . [Full text of this article]

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