BMJ  2005;331:1256-1260 (26 November), doi:10.1136/bmj.331.7527.1256

Education and debate

Early qualitative risk assessment of the emerging zoonotic potential of animal diseases

Stephen Palmer, Mansel Talbot professor of epidemiology and public health1, David Brown, consultant virologist2, Dilys Morgan, consultant epidemiologist2

1 Department of Epidemiology, Statistics and Public Health, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF4 4XN, 2 Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, London NW9 5HT

Correspondence to: S Palmer palmersr@cardiff.ac.uk

Most new human infections are of animal origin, but there is rarely sufficient evidence to make a risk assessment of the zoonotic potential of emerging animal diseases. An algorithm for early qualitative public health risk assessment has been developed to guide risk management

The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below.

Introduction

Most newly emerging human infections of global importance are of animal origin,1 w1 but early accurate predictions of zoonotic risk of emerging animal diseases are difficult, as shown by the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom.w2 Miscalculation, delays, or poor risk communication can result in failure to protect the public's health and undermine public trust,2 but overreaction can waste resources and even harm the economy of countries, as in the case of suspected plague in India.3 The public are increasingly anxious to understand the basis on which a government's decisions on risk management are taken,w3 but scientists and government may be reluctant to engage with the public at an early stage because of the fear of provoking a public scare. However, since the BSE epidemic, it has been accepted that the criteria used and the evidence considered in risk assessments should be open and . . . [Full text of this article]

Methods

Worked examples

Discussion


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