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BMJ 2004;328:582-583 (6 March), doi:10.1136/bmj.328.7439.582-c
| The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below. |
EDITORThe comparison by Ham et al of bed utilisation in the NHS and Kaiser Permanente indicates that the NHS could improve its management of beds drastically but leaves open the possibility that it could be expensive in effort and money to reach the degree of efficiency at Kaiser.1 However, a body of direct evidence from other statistics in the NHS already shows that large improvements are possible and likely to be cheap to implement.
Length of stay varies greatly in different hospitals (and for reasons not readily explained by demographics or differences in specialisations). In most hospitals the expected length of stay varies by around one day, depending on which day you arrive (a pattern with no conceivable clinical justification).2
Our models build a picture of hourly bed utilisation given known patterns of emergency arrivals (which are random), elective arrivals (which are, at least in principle, subject to
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Stephen Black, principal consultant
PA Consulting, London SW1W 9SR stephen.black@paconsulting.com
Nathan Proudlove, lecturer in operational research
Manchester School of Management, University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology, Manchester M60 1QD