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EDITOR
Baker et al monitored mortality in general practice after
Shipman.1 A statistical monitoring process with high
enough sensitivity to detect murder would almost certainly give many false positive signals. This could cause severe damage both to practitioners and to their relationships with their patients.
A statistical monitoring process with high enough specificity to avoid false positive signals may take so long to signal that many preventable deaths could occur. A practitioner bent on deliberate murder would almost certainly be expert at gaming any such monitoring process. Requiring groups of practitioners to review the deaths in their practices at regular intervals with a view to improving the quality of patient care is an excellent idea, but it is difficult to see how this would deter a murderer.
It is essential for dealing with substandard performance that the
underlying system is first analysed carefully and fixed. Judgmental
monitoring without that