Excess winter mortality

doi:10.1136/bmj.324.7349.1337

BMJ 2002;324:1337 ( 1 June )

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Excess winter mortality

Method of calculating mortality attributed to influenza is disputed

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Method of calculating mortality attributed to influenza is disputed

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EDITOR $---$ We challenge the method that Donaldson and Keatinge used to calculate mortality due to influenza.¹ Data coveringthe period 1970-99 were used, but the authors state that the regressionanalysis started on 1 January 1990. On the basis of the 10 yearanalysis, they estimate an average of 1265 per million excesswinter deaths from all causes, equivalent to 67 000 nationallyin England and Wales. They say that 2.4% of this excess (equivalentto a national average of 1620 deaths per year) is attributableto influenza.. This estimate contrasts with those obtained byother groups: Tillett et al estimated an annual average of 12000 deaths (1968-9 to1977-8)², Nicholson 13 800 (1975-6 to1989-90)³,and Fleming 12 500 (1989-90 to 1998-9).⁴ The estimate of 12500 is equivalent to 19% of the 67 000 total excess winter deaths,rather than 2.4%.

Donaldson and Keatinge estimated total deaths attributable to influenza from deaths certified as due to influenza. They presumably. . . [Full text of this article]

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Excess winter mortality: influenza or cold stress? Observational study: G C Donaldson and W R Keatinge
BMJ 2002 324: 89-90. [Extract] [Full Text] [PDF]

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