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Only normalisation of physiology will reduce risk of mortality after discharge
| The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below. |
EDITOR
The triage model described by Daly et al to identify patients at
higher risk of death after discharge from intensive care seeks to
address a number of important issues.1 Daly et al used
five variables (patient's age, chronic health points, length of stay
in intensive care, acute physiology score, and cardiothoracic surgery)
to produce a predictive model that gave a relative risk of death of
9.44 in the developmental group (mortality 14% in those at risk, 1.5%
in those not at risk according to this model) and 6.76 in the
validation group (mortality 28% in those at risk on day of discharge,
4% in those not at risk in the 48 hours before discharge). This adds
further statistical background to previous studies, which had
highlighted four of these variables as risk factors at discharge from
intensive care.
2 3
The fifth variable, cardiothoracic
surgery (57% of the developmental model), makes this group
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