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Ecological studies cannot answer main question
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EDITOR
Kaye et al undertook an ecological study comparing the time
trend in measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine coverage with the
time trend in diagnoses of autism.1 They found a marked increase in the incidence of codes for autism in children's electronic general practice records over 11 years.
We agree with their conclusion that MMR cannot be the cause of this
observed increase since the vaccine coverage remained constant over the
same time. There have been changes in the classification of autistic
diseases and in the likelihood of case ascertainment in recent years,
and a more rigorous review of cases may clarify whether some of the
increase was due to alterations in diagnostic practice.2
Only 81% of cases were reported to have been referred to a specialist,
raising questions about the validity of the diagnoses used by Kaye et
al. Children with medical conditions present from birth and
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