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A 10 year risk of 30% should be used
| The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below. |
EDITOR
Ulrich et al have bravely attempted to tackle a problem that has
been quietly sidestepped for some time
namely, that lipid lowering
does not (as far as we are aware) prevent coronary heart disease, it
merely postpones it.1 The concept of assessing treatment
in terms of "event free life years gained" is a useful one, but
using a risk calculator to estimate potential benefit is fraught with difficulty.
The authors base their calculation on the Framingham equation, in
common with most coronary risk calculators, and have made one
particularly common but incorrect assumption regarding age. With the
publication of the Framingham equation, Anderson et al stated that the
equation "may be used for estimating outcome probabilities over a
range of 4 to 12 years for persons aged 30 to 74 years."2 Quoting calculated risks for ages 15 to 94 is
therefore inappropriate. To attempt to recalculate such risks using a
pharmacologically lowered cholesterol concentration