BMJ 2000;321:637 ( 9 September )

Letters

Optimal age for starting lipid lowering treatment

    A 10 year risk of 30% should be used
    It is more efficient to screen and treat elderly people
    Adjusted data do not justify a lower optimal age
    Authors' reply

A 10 year risk of 30% should be used

The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below.

EDITOR---Ulrich et al have bravely attempted to tackle a problem that has been quietly sidestepped for some time---namely, that lipid lowering does not (as far as we are aware) prevent coronary heart disease, it merely postpones it.1 The concept of assessing treatment in terms of "event free life years gained" is a useful one, but using a risk calculator to estimate potential benefit is fraught with difficulty.

The authors base their calculation on the Framingham equation, in common with most coronary risk calculators, and have made one particularly common but incorrect assumption regarding age. With the publication of the Framingham equation, Anderson et al stated that the equation "may be used for estimating outcome probabilities over a range of 4 to 12 years for persons aged 30 to 74 years."2 Quoting calculated risks for ages 15 to 94 is therefore inappropriate. To attempt to recalculate such risks using a pharmacologically lowered cholesterol concentration . . . [Full text of this article]


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