BMJ 2000;321:237 ( 22 July )

Letters

Prediction of survival for preterm births

The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below.

EDITOR---We would like to clarify one or two issues raised in the correspondence about our recent paper in the BMJ.1-4

The data from Trent were presented not as being good or bad but simply to reflect what was actually happening. They will become less useful with time, but, having established the methodology, we hope to offer biennial updates. It would be possible to provide a more complex model of predicted outcome using additional factors, but we were aware that this would add little to the accuracy of prediction.

We do not agree with Ferriman et al that hospital based data are an acceptable alternative.3 The small numbers make the predictions far less accurate, and the inevitable referral bias also has a marked effect on the results of each unit.5 We are currently looking at the quality of the survival of preterm infants at discharge from neonatal care4 . . . [Full text of this article]
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Relevant Article

Prediction of survival for preterm births by weight and gestational age: retrospective population based study
Elizabeth S Draper, Bradley Manktelow, David J Field, and David James
BMJ 1999 319: 1093-1097. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

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