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EDITOR
Morgan et al say that the increase in emergency admissions in
Avon from 1989 to 1998 may be an artefact.1 Analyses in
the annual public health report for Stockport reached a similar, but
not identical, conclusion.2
We found that the increases were exaggerated. Information
distortions, interhospital transfers, increasing rates of admission for
minor conditions, and changed patterns of flow affecting a particular
provider unfairly accounted for almost two thirds of the apparent
increase, leaving a true underlying pressure of 2.5% a year. Part
of this increase was explained by changed practice
for example,
improved management of chest pain
and part was unexplained.
The unexplained increase was entirely among elderly people. A rapid
response scheme for acute care at home was put in place jointly by
health and social services. For the first six months that the scheme
was in place there was no year on year increase in emergency admissions
crisis or artefact? Temporal analysis of health services data