Authors may have underestimated number of young doctors still working in NHS

BMJ 1999;318:1486 ( 29 May )

Letters

Authors may have underestimated number of young doctors still working in NHS

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EDITOR $---$ Lambert and Goldacre estimate that about 17% of doctors who qualified from British medical schools in 1983 and 1988are not now working in the NHS.¹ Their calculation, which wasbased on the capture-recapture method, depends on the assumptionthat the probabilities of responding to either of the two inquiries(Medical Careers Research Group and Department of Health) arestatistically independent of eachother.

Suppose, however, that there is a link $---$ that a person answering one inquiry is more likely to respond to the other, and theconverse. A twofold difference in this propensity would increasethe estimated number of additional doctors in the NHS from 147to 294 and the participation rate from 83% to 87%. This is a lessworrying proportion and indicates the advisability of includinga sensitivity analysis by varying the basic assumptions as wellas the confidence interval for the error of themethod.

G H Hall, Former chairman, Central Manpower Committee.
Ballamount, Broadclyst, Devon EX5 3BJ harry.hall@which.net

1.	Lambert TW, Goldacre MJ. Career destinations seven years on among doctors who qualified in the United Kingdom in 1988: postal questionnaire survey. BMJ 1998; 317: 1429-1431[Abstract/Free Full Text]. (21 November.)

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