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There are limits to predictability
| The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below. |
In short succession two recently published papers have shown not only a very high relative risk of cerebral sinus thrombosis in users of oral contraceptives but an even stronger effect of contraceptives among women who carry hereditary prothrombotic conditions. 1 2 This raises several questions: Why this sudden wave of publications? Why the very high relative risks? What are the lessons for clinical practice and prevention?
The field of investigation into oral contraceptive use and the
occurrence of venous thrombosis has been undergoing a rapid paradigm
shift over the past couple of years. That oral contraceptives may cause
venous thrombosis has been known since the 1960s, but ever since there
have been controversies about the size of the risk, the role of bias in
observational research, the role of hormonal dosage, the type of
hormones implicated, and
particularly
the glaring absence of any
biochemical explanation. Some have even doubted the reality of