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Modelling economic benefits after such long term treatment is inappropriate
| The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below. |
EDITOR
The West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study Group used an
epidemiological model to estimate the cost effectiveness ratio for
cholesterol lowering with pravastatin.1 Although the title
suggests otherwise, this is not a direct health economic analysis
of original trial data, and why such an analysis has not been published
is unclear. Original trial data would provide direct estimates of the
number of life years of survival in treated and untreated groups, over
the five years of the study. Similarly, a direct estimate of the drug
costs would have been available; these would have been offset by an
estimate of savings from the reduction in non-fatal adverse
events.
A close approximation to this can be carried out by using published
data. The all cause death rate in the treated group over five years in
the trial was 3.2%, compared with 4.1% in the untreated group.2 With a starting population