BMJ 1995;311:1371 (18 November)

Letters

Not using age specific values invalidates study

EDITOR,--J Fletcher and colleagues' paper does little to help purchasing authorities when they have to decide which screening programme and screening policy to choose when introducing screening for Down's syndrome.1 While the methodology used in the paper is valuable when used correctly, the authors were wrong to apply the overall sensitivity and specificity of serum testing obtained from whole population data rather than using age specific values. They argue that "this was done to reduce complexity." As a consequence of their not making allowance for the fact that in older women (those over 30) the sensitivity and specificity change dramatically with age, the results of their analysis are invalidated.

Making allowance for the changing sensitivity and specificity with age is quite simple, and several authors have published both theoretical and actual detection rates and false positive rates by broad age bands.2 3 4 The table gives the results for Fletcher and colleagues' . . . [Full text of this article]


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Relevant Article

Using decision analysis to compare policies for antenatal screening for Down's syndrome
J Fletcher, N R Hicks, J D S Kay, and P A Boyd
BMJ 1995 311: 351-356. [Abstract] [Full Text]




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