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Statistic Notes: Regression towards the mean

Department of Public Health Sciences, St George's Hospital Medical School, London SW17 0RE Medical Statistics Laboratory, Imperial Cancer Research Fund, London WC2A 3PX.

The statistical term "regression," from a Latin root meaning "going back," was first used by Francis Galton in his paper "Regression towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature."¹ Galton related the heights of children to the average height of their parents, which he called the mid- parent height (figure). Children and parents had the same mean height of 68.2 inches. The ranges differed, however, because the mid-parent height was an average of two observations and thus had its range reduced. Now, consider those parents with a mid-height between 70 and 71 inches. The mean height of their children was 69.5 inches, which was closer to the mean height of all children than the mean height of their parents was to the mean height of all parents. Galton called this phenomenon "regression towards mediocrity"; we now call it "regression towards the mean." The same thing happens if we start with the . . . [Full text of this article]

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Rapid Responses:

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A Better Regression Method

bruce e siskowski
bmj.com, 6 May 2004 [Full text]

A caution when using regression

Bruce E Siskowski
bmj.com, 9 Nov 2005 [Full text]