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Published 7 January 2009, doi:10.1136/bmj.a2752
Cite this as: BMJ 2009;338:a2752
Min Zhang, senior research fellow, C DArcy J Holman, professor of public health, Sylvie D Price, research associate, Frank M Sanfilippo, research fellow, David B Preen, senior research fellow, Max K Bulsara, associate professor of biostatistics
1 School of Population Health, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia
Correspondence to: M Zhang min.zhang{at}uwa.edu.au
Design Population based retrospective cohort study.
Setting All public and private hospitals in Western Australia.
Participants 28 548 patients aged
60 years with an admission for an ADR during 1980-2000 followed for three years using the Western Australian data linkage system.
Results 5056 (17.7%) patients had a repeat admission for an ADR. Repeat ADRs were associated with sex (hazard ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.15, for men), first admission in 1995-9 (2.34, 2.00 to 2.73), length of hospital stay (1.11, 1.05 to 1.18, for stays
14 days), and Charlson comorbidity index (1.71, 1.46 to 1.99, for score
7); 60% of comorbidities were recorded and taken into account in analysis. In contrast, advancing age had no effect on repeat ADRs. Comorbid congestive cardiac failure (1.56, 1.43 to 1.71), peripheral vascular disease (1.27, 1.09 to 1.48), chronic pulmonary disease (1.61, 1.45 to 1.79), rheumatological disease (1.65, 1.41 to 1.92), mild liver disease (1.48, 1.05 to 2.07), moderate to severe liver disease (1.85, 1.18 to 2.92), moderate diabetes (1.18, 1.07 to 1.30), diabetes with chronic complications (1.91, 1.65 to 2.22), renal disease (1.93, 1.71 to 2.17), any malignancy including lymphoma and leukaemia (1.87, 1.68 to 2.09), and metastatic solid tumours (2.25, 1.92 to 2.64) were strong predictive factors. Comorbidities requiring continuing care predicted a reduced likelihood of repeat hospital admissions for ADRs (cerebrovascular disease 0.85, 0.73 to 0.98; dementia 0.62, 0.49 to 0.78; paraplegia 0.73, 0.59 to 0.89).
Conclusions Comorbidity, but not advancing age, predicts repeat admission for ADRs in older adults, especially those with comorbidities often managed in the community. Awareness of these predictors can help clinicians to identify which older adults are at greater risk of admission for ADRs and, therefore, who might benefit from closer monitoring.
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