Published 17 July 2008, doi:10.1136/bmj.a769
Cite this as: BMJ 2008;337:a769

Research

Economic evaluation of human papillomavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom

¹ Modelling and Economics Unit, Centre for Infections, Health Protection Agency, London NW9 6BT

Objective To assess the cost effectiveness of routine vaccination of 12 year old schoolgirls against human papillomavirus infection in the United Kingdom.

Design Economic evaluation.

Setting UK.

Population Schoolgirls aged 12 or older.

Main outcome measures Costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost effectiveness ratios for a range of vaccination options.

Results Vaccinating 12 year old schoolgirls with a quadrivalent vaccine at 80% coverage is likely to be cost effective at a willingness to pay threshold of £30 000 (37 700; $59 163) per QALY gained, if the average duration of protection from the vaccine is more than 10 years. Implementing a catch-up campaign of girls up to age 18 is likely to be cost effective. Vaccination of boys is unlikely to be cost effective. A bivalent vaccine with the same efficacy against human papillomavirus types 16 and 18 costing £13-£21 less per dose (depending on the duration of vaccine protection) may be as cost effective as the quadrivalent vaccine although less effective as it does not prevent anogenital warts.

Conclusions Routine vaccination of 12 year old schoolgirls combined with an initial catch-up campaign up to age 18 is likely to be cost effective in the UK. The results are robust to uncertainty in many parameters and processes. A key influential variable is the duration of vaccine protection.

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