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Published 10 July 2008, doi:10.1136/bmj.a386
Cite this as: BMJ 2008;337:a386
Bette Liu, clinical epidemiologist1, Valerie Beral, professor of epidemiology1, Angela Balkwill, statistical programmer1, Jane Green, clinical research scientist1, Siân Sweetland, statisticial epidemiologist1, Gillian Reeves, statistical epidemiologist1, for the Million Women Study Collaborators
1 Epidemiology Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF
Correspondence to: B Liu Bette.Liu{at}ceu.ox.ac.uk
Design Prospective cohort study (Million Women Study).
Setting Women registered with the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Scotland.
Participants 1 001 391 postmenopausal women (mean age 56) recruited between 1996 and 2001 from NHS breast screening centres and followed by record linkage to routinely collected NHS hospital admission data for gallbladder disease.
Main outcome measures Adjusted relative risk and standardised incidence rates of hospital admission for gallbladder disease or cholecystectomy according to use of hormone replacement therapy.
Results During follow-up 19 889 women were admitted for gallbladder disease; 17 190 (86%) had a cholecystectomy. Compared with never users of hormone replacement therapy, current users were more likely to be admitted for gallbladder disease (relative risk 1.64, 95% confidence interval 1.58 to 1.69) but risks were substantially lower with transdermal therapy than with oral therapy (relative risk 1.17, 1.10 to 1.24 v 1.74, 1.68 to 1.80; heterogeneity P<0.001). Among women using oral therapy, equine oestrogens were associated with a slightly greater risk of gallbladder disease than estradiol (relative risk 1.79, 1.72 to 1.87 v 1.62, 1.54 to 1.70; heterogeneity P<0.001) and higher doses of oestrogen increased the risk more than lower doses: for equine oestrogens >0.625 mg, 1.91 (1.78 to 2.04) v
0.625 mg, 1.76 (1.68 to 1.84); heterogeneity P=0.02; estradiol >1 mg, 1.68 (1.59 to 1.77) v
1 mg, 1.44 (1.31 to 1.59); heterogeneity P=0.003. The risk of gallbladder disease decreased with time since stopping therapy (trend P=0.004). Results were similar taking cholecystectomy as the outcome. Standardised hospital admission rates per 100 women over five years for cholecystectomy were 1.1 in never users, 1.3 with transdermal therapy, and 2.0 with oral therapy.
Conclusion Gallbladder disease is common in postmenopausal women and use of hormone replacement therapy increases the risk. Use of transdermal therapy rather than oral therapy over a five year period could avoid one cholecystectomy in every 140 users.
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