Estimating the high risk group for cardiovascular disease in the Norwegian HUNT 2 population according to the 2003 European guidelines: modelling study

doi:10.1136/bmj.38555.648623.8F

BMJ 2005;331:551 (10 September), doi:10.1136/bmj.38555.648623.8F (published 15 August 2005)

Primary care

Estimating the high risk group for cardiovascular disease in the Norwegian HUNT 2 population according to the 2003 European guidelines: modelling study

Linn Getz, occupational physician, PhD student¹^,2, Johann A Sigurdsson, professor³, Irene Hetlevik, associate professor in general practice², Anna Luise Kirkengen, post doctoral researcher³, Solfrid Romundstad, post doctoral researcher⁴, Jostein Holmen, professor in community medicine⁴

¹ Office of Human Resources, Landspitali University Hospital, IS-101 Reykjavik, Iceland, ² Department of Public Health and General Practice, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7489 Trondheim, Norway, ³ Department of Family Medicine, University of Iceland, Neshagi 16, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland, ⁴ HUNT Research Centre, Department of Public Health and General Practice, Faculty of Medicine, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7650 Verdal, Norway

Correspondence to: L Getz linngetz{at}med.is

Objective To estimate the high risk group for cardiovasculardisease in a well defined Norwegian population according toEuropean guidelines and the systematic coronary risk evaluationsystem.

Design Modelling study.

Setting Nord-Tröndelag health study 1995-7 (HUNT 2), Norway.

Participants 5548 participants of the Nord-Tröndelag healthstudy 1995-7, aged 40, 50, 55, 60, and 65.

Main outcome measures Distribution of risk categories for cardiovasculardisease, with emphasis on the high risk group.

Main results At age 40, 22.5% (95% confidence interval 19.3%to 25.7%) of women and 85.9% (83.2% to 88.6%) of men were athigh risk of cardiovascular disease. Corresponding numbers atage 50 were 39.5% (35.9% to 43.1%) and 88.7% (86.3% to 91.0%)and at age 65 were 84.0% (80.6% to 87.4%) and 91.6% (88.6% to94.1%). At age 40, one out of 10 women and no men would be classifiedat low risk for cardiovascular disease.

Conclusion Implementation of the 2003 European guidelines onprevention of cardiovascular disease in clinical practice wouldclassify most adult Norwegians at high risk for fatal cardiovasculardisease.

Add to CiteULike CiteULike Add to Complore Complore Add to Connotea Connotea Add to Del.icio.us Del.icio.us Add to Digg Digg Add to Reddit Reddit Add to StumbleUpon StumbleUpon Add to Technorati Technorati What's this?

Relevant Articles

Cardiovascular risk tables: Thierry Christiaens
BMJ 2008 336: 1445-1446. [Extract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Should we lower cholesterol as much as possible?: Uffe Ravnskov, Paul J Rosch, Morley C Sutter, and Mark C Houston
BMJ 2006 332: 1330-1332. [Full Text] [PDF]

Did cardiovascular prevention guidelines go over the top?
BMJ 2005 331: 0. [Full Text]

Predictive accuracy of the Framingham coronary risk score in British men: prospective cohort study: Peter Brindle, Jonathan Emberson, Fiona Lampe, Mary Walker, Peter Whincup, Tom Fahey, and Shah Ebrahim
BMJ 2003 327: 1267. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Resource implications and health benefits of primary prevention strategies for cardiovascular disease in people aged 30 to 74: mathematical modelling study: Tom Marshall and Andrew Rouse
BMJ 2002 325: 197. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Screening for cardiovascular risk: public health imperative or matter for individual informed choice?: Theresa M Marteau and Ann Louise Kinmonth
BMJ 2002 325: 78-80. [Extract] [Full Text] [PDF]

Clinical guidelines: Developing guidelines: Paul G Shekelle, Steven H Woolf, Martin Eccles, and Jeremy Grimshaw
BMJ 1999 318: 593-596. [Extract] [Full Text] [PDF]

This article has been cited by other articles:

Cooney, M. T., Dudina, A. L., Graham, I. M. (2009). Value and limitations of existing scores for the assessment of cardiovascular risk: a review for clinicians.. J Am Coll Cardiol 54: 1209-1227 [Abstract] [Full text]
Ketola, E., Laatikainen, T., Vartiainen, E. (2009). Evaluating risk for cardiovascular diseases--vain or value? How do different cardiovascular risk scores act in real life. Eur J Public Health 0: ckp070v1-ckp070 [Abstract] [Full text]
Gramling, R., Klein, W., Roberts, M., Waring, M. E., Gramling, D., Eaton, C. B. (2008). Self-Rated Cardiovascular Risk and 15-Year Cardiovascular Mortality. Ann Fam Med 6: 302-306 [Abstract] [Full text]
Christiaens, T. (2008). Cardiovascular risk tables. BMJ 336: 1445-1446 [Full text]
Authors/Task Force Members, , Graham, I., Atar, D., Borch-Johnsen, K., Boysen, G., Burell, G., Cifkova, R., Dallongeville, J., De Backer, G., Ebrahim, S., Gjelsvik, B., Herrmann-Lingen, C., Hoes, A., Humphries, S., Knapton, M., Perk, J., Priori, S. G., Pyorala, K., Reiner, Z., Ruilope, L., Sans-Menendez, S., Scholte op Reimer, W., Weissberg, P., Wood, D., Yarnell, J., Zamorano, J. L., Other experts who contributed to parts of the guid, , Walma, E., Fitzgerald, T., Cooney, M. T., Dudina, A., European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Committee for, , Vahanian, A., Camm, J., De Caterina, R., Dean, V., Dickstein, K., Funck-Brentano, C., Filippatos, G., Hellemans, I., Kristensen, S. D., McGregor, K., Sechtem, U., Silber, S., Tendera, M., Widimsky, P., Zamorano, J. L., Document reviewers:, , Hellemans, I., Altiner, A., Bonora, E., Durrington, P. N., Fagard, R., Giampaoli, S., Hemingway, H., Hakansson, J., Kjeldsen, S. E., Larsen, M. L., Mancia, G., Manolis, A. J., Orth-Gomer, K., Pedersen, T., Rayner, M., Ryden, L., Sammut, M., Schneiderman, N., Stalenhoef, A. F., Tokgozoglu, L., Wiklund, O., Zampelas, A. (2007). European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice: executive summary: Fourth Joint Task Force of the European Society of Cardiology and Other Societies on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Clinical Practice (Constituted by representatives of nine societies and by invited experts). Eur Heart J 28: 2375-2414 [Full text]
Halvorsen, P. A., Selmer, R., Kristiansen, I. S. (2007). Different Ways to Describe the Benefits of Risk-Reducing Treatments: A Randomized Trial. ANN INTERN MED 146: 848-856 [Abstract] [Full text]
Ravnskov, U., Rosch, P. J, Sutter, M. C, Houston, M. C (2006). Should we lower cholesterol as much as possible?. BMJ 332: 1330-1332 [Full text]

Rapid Responses:

Read all Rapid Responses

A very large small proportion...: Stevie M Gamble
bmj.com, 18 Aug 2005 [Full text]
selling healthcare interventions for the healthy majority: M Justin S Zaman
bmj.com, 11 Sep 2005 [Full text]
An asylum of experts: James Penston
bmj.com, 16 Sep 2005 [Full text]
Treating Whole population!!: Sandip Raha
bmj.com, 19 Oct 2005 [Full text]