BMJ 2003;326:1419 (28 June), doi:10.1136/bmj.326.7404.1419
Paper
A strategy to reduce cardiovascular disease by more than 80%
N J Wald, professor1,
M R Law, professor1
1 Department of Environmental and Preventive Medicine, Wolfson Institute of
Preventive Medicine, Barts and the London, Queen Mary's School of Medicine and
Dentistry, University of London, London EC1M 6BQ
Correspondence to: N J Wald
n.j.wald{at}qmul.ac.uk
Objectives To determine the combination of drugs and vitamins, and
their doses, for use in a single daily pill to achieve a large effect in
preventing cardiovascular disease with minimal adverse effects. The strategy
was to simultaneously reduce four cardiovascular risk factors (low density
lipoprotein cholesterol, blood pressure, serum homocysteine, and platelet
function) regardless of pretreatment levels.
Design We quantified the efficacy and adverse effects of the
proposed formulation from published meta-analyses of randomised trials and
cohort studies and a meta-analysis of 15 trials of low dose (50-125 mg/day)
aspirin.
Outcome measures Proportional reduction in ischaemic heart disease
(IHD) events and strokes; life years gained; and prevalence of adverse
effects.
Results The formulation which met our objectives was: a statin (for
example, atorvastatin (daily dose 10 mg) or simvastatin (40 mg)); three blood
pressure lowering drugs (for example, a thiazide, a
blocker, and an
angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor), each at half standard dose; folic
acid (0.8 mg); and aspirin (75 mg). We estimate that the combination (which we
call the Polypill) reduces IHD events by 88% (95% confidence interval 84% to
91%) and stroke by 80% (71% to 87%). One third of people taking this pill from
age 55 would benefit, gaining on average about 11 years of life free from an
IHD event or stroke. Summing the adverse effects of the components observed in
randomised trials shows that the Polypill would cause symptoms in 8-15% of
people (depending on the precise formulation).
Conclusion The Polypill strategy could largely prevent heart attacks
and stroke if taken by everyone aged 55 and older and everyone with existing
cardiovascular disease. It would be acceptably safe and with widespread use
would have a greater impact on the prevention of disease in the Western world
than any other single intervention.

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Rapid Responses:
Read all Rapid Responses
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[Full text]
- WHEN?
- Linda L Gimnich
bmj.com, 30 Jun 2003
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- About as believable as the tooth fairy
- Adam Jacobs
bmj.com, 30 Jun 2003
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- A pill a day keeps health away?
- Ewan Hamnett
bmj.com, 30 Jun 2003
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- Shame on you BMJ!!
- Michael C Bunbury, et al.
bmj.com, 30 Jun 2003
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- Nearer 66% rather than 88% IHD risk reduction after 2 years?
- Eric S. Kilpatrick
bmj.com, 30 Jun 2003
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- Relative risks and meta-analysis
- J Michael Henk
bmj.com, 30 Jun 2003
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- Unbelievable and unachievable
- Mark J Garton
bmj.com, 30 Jun 2003
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- Multiple Polypill Benefits
- Gerard T O'Brien
bmj.com, 1 Jul 2003
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- WHO should convene an aspirin meeting?
- Gareth P Morgan
bmj.com, 1 Jul 2003
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- POLYPILL AGAIN,BUT IN THE THIRD WORLD
- CELIO LEVYMAN,MD,MSc
bmj.com, 2 Jul 2003
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- Patients before populations
- Peter N Trewby, et al.
bmj.com, 2 Jul 2003
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- Polypill treatment and the physical properties of blood.
- Leslie.O. Simpson
bmj.com, 2 Jul 2003
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- Re: Shame on you BMJ!!
- Daniel Weyandt
bmj.com, 2 Jul 2003
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- Reality check
- Mike Schachter
bmj.com, 2 Jul 2003
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- Brave New World
- Joachim P Sturmberg
bmj.com, 2 Jul 2003
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- Polypill Choices
- Shah M Tauzeeh
bmj.com, 2 Jul 2003
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- Concept is correct
- Paul W Masters
bmj.com, 2 Jul 2003
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- Logical consequence of current polypharmacy
- Dr. Matthew L Grove
bmj.com, 2 Jul 2003
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- What must be done now.
- William Plummer
bmj.com, 2 Jul 2003
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- Aspastatapril vs Polypill
- Ketan K Dhatariya
bmj.com, 2 Jul 2003
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- Compliance with the Polypill
- Anita Sainsbury
bmj.com, 3 Jul 2003
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- Re: What must be done now - correction.
- William Plummer
bmj.com, 3 Jul 2003
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- Is The Paper a Spoof?
- David A Brodie
bmj.com, 3 Jul 2003
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- Dubious mathematical assumptions
- David M Reith
bmj.com, 3 Jul 2003
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- Total Mortality
- Jeffrey R Johnstone
bmj.com, 4 Jul 2003
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- Modelling and assumptions need clarification
- Tom Fahey, et al.
bmj.com, 5 Jul 2003
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- Polypill Debate
- Stephen J Redmond
bmj.com, 5 Jul 2003
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- Cat amonsgt the pigeons
- Adam L Brown
bmj.com, 5 Jul 2003
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- Eradicating cardiovascular disease with polypharmarcy: Dream or reality ?
- Peter Marckmann
bmj.com, 6 Jul 2003
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- Willing suspense of disbelief
- Elved B Roberts
bmj.com, 7 Jul 2003
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- 'Magic pill' approach would shift focus from proven and cost-effective CVD prevention
- Derek Yach, et al.
bmj.com, 7 Jul 2003
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- Salicylate deficiency
- Gareth P Morgan
bmj.com, 7 Jul 2003
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- we should ask patients
- Alejandro F. Luque-Coqui
bmj.com, 8 Jul 2003
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- Reducing cardiovascular disease by taking a "polypill" hope or hype?
- Marcus Flather, et al.
bmj.com, 9 Jul 2003
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- The Polypill and prevention of Coronary Heart Disease
- Daan Kromhout, et al.
bmj.com, 10 Jul 2003
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- Re: PolyPill may not decrease all-cause mortality
- Alejandro F. Luque-Coqui
bmj.com, 10 Jul 2003
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- The fundamental principle of western medical science is the principle of scientific testing
- Jeffrey Mann
bmj.com, 10 Jul 2003
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- Polypill for older adults.
- Nandkishor V Athavale
bmj.com, 10 Jul 2003
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- Polypill versus conventional preventive care
- Barry Lewis
bmj.com, 11 Jul 2003
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- Misplaced notions of simplicity, denial of complexity
- Lawrence J. O'Brien, et al.
bmj.com, 11 Jul 2003
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- Incredulous of middle England !!
- Saul G Myerson
bmj.com, 11 Jul 2003
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- Re: Re: Shame on you BMJ!!
- Michael Bunbury
bmj.com, 12 Jul 2003
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- Questionable benefit from polypill treatment.
- Uffe Ravnskov
bmj.com, 13 Jul 2003
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- The ‘polypill’: medical myth versus balanced judgement
- Ian F Godsland, et al.
bmj.com, 14 Jul 2003
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- CARDIOVASCULAR PREVENTION AND THERAPY
- Andrea Alberto Conti, et al.
bmj.com, 15 Jul 2003
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- Poly-drug to reduce cardiovascular disease
- Dietmar Fuchs, et al.
bmj.com, 18 Jul 2003
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- The wonderful poly-pill
- Miguel E. Campos, et al.
bmj.com, 19 Jul 2003
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- Potential Issues
- Robert Kerr
bmj.com, 23 Jul 2003
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- Concept of Poly-Pill contrary to medical judgement
- Munir E Nassar, M.D., et al.
bmj.com, 25 Jul 2003
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- The Nays Have It
- John A. DePoy, BS, MSc, MBA, et al.
bmj.com, 26 Jul 2003
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- The “polypill” strategy in high-risk Australian CVD patients
- Christopher M Reid, et al.
bmj.com, 28 Jul 2003
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- Markov models deserve scientific scrutiny too.
- Christopher J Martin, et al.
bmj.com, 29 Jul 2003
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- Noncompliance with hypertensives
- Christopher J Squire
bmj.com, 30 Jul 2003
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- Risks with the "Polypill" in the Oldest Old
- Sven E Nilsson, et al.
bmj.com, 13 Aug 2003
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- delay vs prevention
- gerry e burns
bmj.com, 15 Aug 2003
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- Why not Omega-3 fatty acid as part of Polypill ?
- William K Smith M D
bmj.com, 17 Aug 2003
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- Enter...The 'Omnipill'
- Joseph .C. Obi
bmj.com, 18 Aug 2003
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- Omega-3 fatty acids and brown fat.
- Richard G Fiddian-Green
bmj.com, 19 Aug 2003
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- We are headed toward a healthcare crisis fast enough, thank you.
- Philip King, D.Ph.
bmj.com, 20 Aug 2003
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- A natural mini polypill: Potential impact on population cardiovascular risk of a daily drink of milk
- Gary A Wright, et al.
bmj.com, 22 Aug 2003
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- The Polypill and Ayurdeva
- Rajeev Gupta
bmj.com, 28 Aug 2003
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- What's really behind the antagonism for the polypill?
- James G Penston
bmj.com, 1 Sep 2003
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- drug interactions
- Teresa Tarnowski Goodell, RN
bmj.com, 18 Sep 2003
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- Reducing Cardiovascular Disease
- William E. Feeman Jr., et al.
bmj.com, 19 Sep 2003
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- polypill - why not ? polypharmarcy is practised !
- das sabapathy
bmj.com, 4 Oct 2003
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- Methodological issues remain unanswered
- Tom Fahey, et al.
bmj.com, 31 Oct 2003
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- Polypill-Pr, a new formulation for the mature male
- A. Mark Clarfield
bmj.com, 30 Jan 2004
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- Re: Polypill- adding osteporosis treatment restores gender equality at 8 all
- Jeremy G Jones
bmj.com, 1 Feb 2004
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- Methodological issues remain unanswered - Authors' response
- Nicholas J Wald, et al.
bmj.com, 8 Mar 2004
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- Polypill a life…in
- Guy-André Pelouze
bmj.com, 19 Mar 2004
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