BMJ  2003;326:1419 (28 June), doi:10.1136/bmj.326.7404.1419

Paper

A strategy to reduce cardiovascular disease by more than 80%

N J Wald, professor1, M R Law, professor1

1 Department of Environmental and Preventive Medicine, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts and the London, Queen Mary's School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of London, London EC1M 6BQ

Correspondence to: N J Wald n.j.wald{at}qmul.ac.uk

Objectives To determine the combination of drugs and vitamins, and their doses, for use in a single daily pill to achieve a large effect in preventing cardiovascular disease with minimal adverse effects. The strategy was to simultaneously reduce four cardiovascular risk factors (low density lipoprotein cholesterol, blood pressure, serum homocysteine, and platelet function) regardless of pretreatment levels.

Design We quantified the efficacy and adverse effects of the proposed formulation from published meta-analyses of randomised trials and cohort studies and a meta-analysis of 15 trials of low dose (50-125 mg/day) aspirin.

Outcome measures Proportional reduction in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) events and strokes; life years gained; and prevalence of adverse effects.

Results The formulation which met our objectives was: a statin (for example, atorvastatin (daily dose 10 mg) or simvastatin (40 mg)); three blood pressure lowering drugs (for example, a thiazide, a {beta} blocker, and an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor), each at half standard dose; folic acid (0.8 mg); and aspirin (75 mg). We estimate that the combination (which we call the Polypill) reduces IHD events by 88% (95% confidence interval 84% to 91%) and stroke by 80% (71% to 87%). One third of people taking this pill from age 55 would benefit, gaining on average about 11 years of life free from an IHD event or stroke. Summing the adverse effects of the components observed in randomised trials shows that the Polypill would cause symptoms in 8-15% of people (depending on the precise formulation).

Conclusion The Polypill strategy could largely prevent heart attacks and stroke if taken by everyone aged 55 and older and everyone with existing cardiovascular disease. It would be acceptably safe and with widespread use would have a greater impact on the prevention of disease in the Western world than any other single intervention.


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Rapid Responses:

Read all Rapid Responses

Costing the polypill, £60 per year.
john s ashcroft
bmj.com, 27 Jun 2003 [Full text]
More Compelling Evidence
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Beware the Epidemiology
Bruce Bain
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Good news: All we need to do now is get people to prescribe it and then take it...
Alexander M Clark
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correction to cost of prescribing polypill
john s ashcroft
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Now who's playing God …
Steve Taylor, et al.
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Pilly Polly Doo Dah all the way
Malcolm Kendrick
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PolyPill may not decrease all-cause mortality
Eddie Vos
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Only 80% reduction? Why not go for 100%?
Barry A Groves
bmj.com, 27 Jun 2003 [Full text]
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Michael A Soljak
bmj.com, 27 Jun 2003 [Full text]
Shabby Medical Thinking
Nicholas M Regush
bmj.com, 27 Jun 2003 [Full text]
A gauntlet thrown at drug companies or doctors?
Richard G Fiddian-Green
bmj.com, 28 Jun 2003 [Full text]
The 'Vacca Foeda' PolyPill
Joseph .C. Obi
bmj.com, 28 Jun 2003 [Full text]
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Bala Subramanian
bmj.com, 28 Jun 2003 [Full text]
Polypill drawbacks and multivitamin as alternative
BIll Sardi
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The Big Issue
Dan Rutherford
bmj.com, 28 Jun 2003 [Full text]
new paradigm
Martin R Innes
bmj.com, 28 Jun 2003 [Full text]
Dumbfounded
Peter J Hosein
bmj.com, 28 Jun 2003 [Full text]
Also dumbfounded
Margaret J Tyson
bmj.com, 29 Jun 2003 [Full text]
Can anyone afford to live a very long life?
Mark Hochhauser, Ph.D.
bmj.com, 29 Jun 2003 [Full text]
A Sad Day For British Medicine
Allan Withnell
bmj.com, 29 Jun 2003 [Full text]
Treat people not populations
Eugene A. Rybinski
bmj.com, 29 Jun 2003 [Full text]
polypill ; for all races, sexes and seasons ?
Adesuyi Ajayi, et al.
bmj.com, 29 Jun 2003 [Full text]
Old joke and current practice
Adrian K Midgley
bmj.com, 29 Jun 2003 [Full text]
What do we die then?
Roger Wanner
bmj.com, 29 Jun 2003 [Full text]
POLYPILL, AN IDEA, PERHAPS A VERY GOOD ONE, BUT NOT A JOKE
CELIO LEVYMAN,MD,MSc, et al.
bmj.com, 30 Jun 2003 [Full text]
WHEN?
Linda L Gimnich
bmj.com, 30 Jun 2003 [Full text]
About as believable as the tooth fairy
Adam Jacobs
bmj.com, 30 Jun 2003 [Full text]
A pill a day keeps health away?
Ewan Hamnett
bmj.com, 30 Jun 2003 [Full text]
Shame on you BMJ!!
Michael C Bunbury, et al.
bmj.com, 30 Jun 2003 [Full text]
Nearer 66% rather than 88% IHD risk reduction after 2 years?
Eric S. Kilpatrick
bmj.com, 30 Jun 2003 [Full text]
Relative risks and meta-analysis
J Michael Henk
bmj.com, 30 Jun 2003 [Full text]
Unbelievable and unachievable
Mark J Garton
bmj.com, 30 Jun 2003 [Full text]
Multiple Polypill Benefits
Gerard T O'Brien
bmj.com, 1 Jul 2003 [Full text]
WHO should convene an aspirin meeting?
Gareth P Morgan
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POLYPILL AGAIN,BUT IN THE THIRD WORLD
CELIO LEVYMAN,MD,MSc
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Patients before populations
Peter N Trewby, et al.
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Polypill treatment and the physical properties of blood.
Leslie.O. Simpson
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Reality check
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Concept is correct
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Logical consequence of current polypharmacy
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bmj.com, 5 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Polypill Debate
Stephen J Redmond
bmj.com, 5 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Cat amonsgt the pigeons
Adam L Brown
bmj.com, 5 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Eradicating cardiovascular disease with polypharmarcy: Dream or reality ?
Peter Marckmann
bmj.com, 6 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Willing suspense of disbelief
Elved B Roberts
bmj.com, 7 Jul 2003 [Full text]
'Magic pill' approach would shift focus from proven and cost-effective CVD prevention
Derek Yach, et al.
bmj.com, 7 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Salicylate deficiency
Gareth P Morgan
bmj.com, 7 Jul 2003 [Full text]
we should ask patients
Alejandro F. Luque-Coqui
bmj.com, 8 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Reducing cardiovascular disease by taking a "polypill" hope or hype?
Marcus Flather, et al.
bmj.com, 9 Jul 2003 [Full text]
The Polypill and prevention of Coronary Heart Disease
Daan Kromhout, et al.
bmj.com, 10 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Re: PolyPill may not decrease all-cause mortality
Alejandro F. Luque-Coqui
bmj.com, 10 Jul 2003 [Full text]
The fundamental principle of western medical science is the principle of scientific testing
Jeffrey Mann
bmj.com, 10 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Polypill for older adults.
Nandkishor V Athavale
bmj.com, 10 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Polypill versus conventional preventive care
Barry Lewis
bmj.com, 11 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Misplaced notions of simplicity, denial of complexity
Lawrence J. O'Brien, et al.
bmj.com, 11 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Incredulous of middle England !!
Saul G Myerson
bmj.com, 11 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Re: Re: Shame on you BMJ!!
Michael Bunbury
bmj.com, 12 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Questionable benefit from polypill treatment.
Uffe Ravnskov
bmj.com, 13 Jul 2003 [Full text]
The ‘polypill’: medical myth versus balanced judgement
Ian F Godsland, et al.
bmj.com, 14 Jul 2003 [Full text]
CARDIOVASCULAR PREVENTION AND THERAPY
Andrea Alberto Conti, et al.
bmj.com, 15 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Poly-drug to reduce cardiovascular disease
Dietmar Fuchs, et al.
bmj.com, 18 Jul 2003 [Full text]
The wonderful poly-pill
Miguel E. Campos, et al.
bmj.com, 19 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Potential Issues
Robert Kerr
bmj.com, 23 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Concept of Poly-Pill contrary to medical judgement
Munir E Nassar, M.D., et al.
bmj.com, 25 Jul 2003 [Full text]
The Nays Have It
John A. DePoy, BS, MSc, MBA, et al.
bmj.com, 26 Jul 2003 [Full text]
The “polypill” strategy in high-risk Australian CVD patients
Christopher M Reid, et al.
bmj.com, 28 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Markov models deserve scientific scrutiny too.
Christopher J Martin, et al.
bmj.com, 29 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Noncompliance with hypertensives
Christopher J Squire
bmj.com, 30 Jul 2003 [Full text]
Risks with the "Polypill" in the Oldest Old
Sven E Nilsson, et al.
bmj.com, 13 Aug 2003 [Full text]
delay vs prevention
gerry e burns
bmj.com, 15 Aug 2003 [Full text]
Why not Omega-3 fatty acid as part of Polypill ?
William K Smith M D
bmj.com, 17 Aug 2003 [Full text]
Enter...The 'Omnipill'
Joseph .C. Obi
bmj.com, 18 Aug 2003 [Full text]
Omega-3 fatty acids and brown fat.
Richard G Fiddian-Green
bmj.com, 19 Aug 2003 [Full text]
We are headed toward a healthcare crisis fast enough, thank you.
Philip King, D.Ph.
bmj.com, 20 Aug 2003 [Full text]
A natural mini polypill: Potential impact on population cardiovascular risk of a daily drink of milk
Gary A Wright, et al.
bmj.com, 22 Aug 2003 [Full text]
The Polypill and Ayurdeva
Rajeev Gupta
bmj.com, 28 Aug 2003 [Full text]
What's really behind the antagonism for the polypill?
James G Penston
bmj.com, 1 Sep 2003 [Full text]
drug interactions
Teresa Tarnowski Goodell, RN
bmj.com, 18 Sep 2003 [Full text]
Reducing Cardiovascular Disease
William E. Feeman Jr., et al.
bmj.com, 19 Sep 2003 [Full text]
polypill - why not ? polypharmarcy is practised !
das sabapathy
bmj.com, 4 Oct 2003 [Full text]
Methodological issues remain unanswered
Tom Fahey, et al.
bmj.com, 31 Oct 2003 [Full text]
Polypill-Pr, a new formulation for the mature male
A. Mark Clarfield
bmj.com, 30 Jan 2004 [Full text]
Re: Polypill- adding osteporosis treatment restores gender equality at 8 all
Jeremy G Jones
bmj.com, 1 Feb 2004 [Full text]
Methodological issues remain unanswered - Authors' response
Nicholas J Wald, et al.
bmj.com, 8 Mar 2004 [Full text]
Polypill a life…in
Guy-André Pelouze
bmj.com, 19 Mar 2004 [Full text]



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