Appearances are deceptive
Longevity of screenwriters who win an academy award: longitudinal study
Donald A Redelmeier Sunnybrook and
Women's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada M4N 3M5
Correspondence to: D A Redelmeier
dar{at}ices.on.ca
Objective:
To determine whether the link between
high success and longevity extends to academy award winning screenwriters.
What is already known on this topic
What this study adds
Design:
Retrospective cohort analysis.
Participants:
All screenwriters ever nominated
for an academy award.
Main outcome measures:
Life expectancy and all
cause mortality.
Results:
A total of 850 writers were nominated;
the median duration of follow up from birth was 68 years; and 428 writers died. On average, winners were more successful than nominees, as indicated by a 14% longer career (27.7 v 24.2, P=0.004), 34% more total films (23.2 v 17.3, P<0.001),
58% more four star films (4.8 v 3.1, P<0.001), and 62%
more nominations (2.1 v 1.3, P<0.001). However, life
expectancy was 3.6 years shorter for winners than for nominees
(74.1 v 77.7 years, P=0.004), equivalent to a 37% relative
increase in death rates (95% confidence interval 10 to 70). After
adjustment for year of birth, sex, and other factors, a 35% relative
increase in death rates was found (7% to 70%). Additional wins were
associated with a 22% relative increase in death rates (3% to 44%).
Additional nominations and additional other films in a career otherwise
caused no significant increase in death rates.
Conclusion:
The link between occupational
achievement and longevity is reversed in screenwriters who win academy
awards. Doubt is cast on simple biological theories for the survival
gradients found for other members of society.
High achievement has been associated with decreased all cause mortality
for people in many different occupations
Screenwriters nominated for an academy award show a paradoxical
survival pattern, where greater success is associated with a large
decrease in life expectancy
© BMJ 2001
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