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Effect of receiving a heart transplant: analysis of a national
cohort entered on to a waiting list, stratified by heart failure
severity
Mario C Deng a Department of
Cardiothoracic Surgery, Muenster University, D-48129 Muenster, Germany, b Eurotransplant Foundation, PO Box 2304, 2301 CH
Leiden, Netherlands, c Institute for Biomathematics, Muenster University, D-48129
Muenster, Germany
Correspondence to: M C Deng, Heart Failure
Center, Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons, New
York, NY 10032, USA md785{at}columbia.edu
Objective:
To determine whether there is a survival
benefit associated with cardiac transplantation in Germany.
Design:
Prospective observational cohort study.
Setting:
All 889 adult patients listed for a first heart transplant in Germany in 1997.
Main outcome measure:
Mortality, stratified by heart
failure severity.
Results:
Within 1 year after listing, patients with a
predicted high risk had the highest global death rate (51%
v 32% and 29% for medium and low risk patients
respectively; P<0.0001), had the highest risk of dying on the waiting
list (32% v 20% and 20%; P=0.0003), and were more likely
to receive a transplant (48% v 45% and 41%; P=0.01).
Differences between the risk groups in outcome after transplantation
did not reach significance (P=0.2). Transplantation was not associated
with a reduction in mortality risk for the total cohort, but it did
provide a survival benefit for the high risk group.
Conclusion:
Cardiac transplantation in Germany is
currently associated with a survival benefit only in patients with a
predicted high risk of dying on the waiting list. Patients with a
predicted low or medium risk have no reduction in mortality risk
associated with transplantation; they should be managed with organ
saving approaches rather than transplantation.
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