Br Med J (Clin Res Ed) 1981;282:258-262 (24 January), doi:10.1136/bmj.282.6260.258
Natural history of autoimmune thyroiditis.
W M Tunbridge,
M Brewis,
J M French,
D Appleton,
T Bird,
F Clark,
D C Evered,
J G Evans,
R Hall,
P Smith,
J Stephenson,
E Young
One hundred and sixty-three asymptomatic people with thyroid
antibodies or raised serum thyrotrophin (TSH) concentrations,
or both, and 209 age-matched and sex-matched controls without
either marker of thyroid disorder were followed up for four
years to determine the natural history of autoimmune thyroiditis.
Mildly raised TSH concentrations alone and the presence of thyroid
antibodies alone did not significantly increase the risk of
developing overt hypothyroidism during the four years compared
with the controls. Overt hypothyroidism developed at the rate
of 5% a year in women who initially had both raised TSH concentrations
and thyroid antibodies. Prophylactic treatment with thyroxine
may be justified in women found to have both markers of impending
thyroid failure. The cost effectiveness of screening the adult
population remains to be evaluated.

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