BMJ No 7123 Volume 315
Education and debate Saturday 20/27 December Christmas 1997 issue
Looking to the future: amazon.com and four trends
Ronald E LaPorte, Akira Sekikawa, Deborah Aaron,
Rimei Nishimura, Benjamin Acosta Amazon.com is the world's largest bookstore and currently
the most successful enterprise on the internet. In amazon.com one can:
Substitute the word "journal" for "book": this is the
future of scientific publication. Amazon.com is a model of a
successful, efficient, constantly evolving internet information broker.
Scientific journals will emulate it.
In addition to amazon.com there are four trends.(1,2)
Competition - Now, publishers have a monopoly on scientific
communication; this will soon fall. Scientists will bypass journals and
put research directly on the web.(3) A second competitor
will be Silicon Valley companies like Microsoft or amazon.com. These
aggressive information brokers will "eat their children" by
evolving cutting edge information technology for dissemination of
scientific information.(4) The competitors will improve
service and drive down costs; as a result, many journals will go belly
up.
Cognitive based presentations - Powerful new cognitive
formats will evolve; as this happens, the traditional format of
Abstract, Introduction, Methods will become extinct. One new format is
called "Hypertext Comic Book|mK; here learning is enhanced by iconic
"cognitive" paradigms.(5) The user points and clicks to
icons for medical knowledge. In 2002 the medical literature will have
no rigid style. Instead, cognitively based formats which maximise
interactivity, hyperlinks, and memory will evolve.
Comprehension translation - This 1997 article appears in only
one format; one size fits all. In 2002, people will indicate their
backgrounds, and software called Intelligent Agents will individually
tailor a semantic translation to maximise comprehension. Thus an
epidemiologist will see a very different article than a surgeon or bus
driver.
Convergence - Researchers currently do not communicate
well with clinicians, public health workers, or the lay public. People
in different disciplines will converge to global internet chat rooms to
discuss new research. Having researchers transfer information directly
to the consumer rather than through paper journals or the media will
allow much faster and more accurate diffusion of scientific
information. Convergence will also bring scientists to the schools.
Scientists will "push" new information into schools via internet
lectures.(6) Convergence will also take place as the
distinctions between the latest scientific findings, lectures,
journals, and books become blurred. Schools, books, and lessons will
have information days old rather than years or decades old.
The future is bright: there will be better quality, improved
access, and lower costs with the emergence of scientific
information based, amazon.com-type companies.
Global Health Network, Ronald E LaPorte,
professor
Correspondence to: Professor LaPorte
email: rlaporte@vms.cis.pitt.edu
(www.pitt.edu/HOME/GHNet/GHNet.html)
References
1 http://www.bmj.com/bmj/archive/6991ed2.htm
2 http://www.bmj.com/archive/7072fd2.htm
3 www.pitt.edu/HOME/GHNet/publications/assassin/index.html
4 www.pitt.edu/~rlaporte/prague.html
Easily find books by browsing; Find books that are the most read; Identify books recommended and reviewed by experts; Find award winning books; Examine ratings and reviews by peers; Rate and review books for other readers; Select and pay for books directly on the internet; Have new books selected on the basis of previous choices and pushed
onto your computer.
WHO Collaborating Center,
Department of Epidemiology,
Graduate School
of Public Health,
University of Pittsburgh,
Pittsburgh,
PA 15261,
USA
Akira Sekikawa,
Deborah Aaron,
research assistant
Rimei
Nishimura,
fellow
Benjamin Acosta,
fellow
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