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BMJ No 7103 Volume 315

Letters Saturday 2 August 1997


Death rates from leukaemia are higher than expected in areas around nuclear sites in Berkshire and Oxfordshire

Editor,
As a result of the report that a fire at the United States Air Force base at Greenham Common in 1958 may have caused radioactive contamination near Newbury, Green Audit (Wales) has compared the number of deaths from leukaemia in children aged 14 years and younger from 1981 to 1995 in the Newbury area with that within nearby county districts.

The table shows results for the triangular area defined by Oxford, Newbury, and Reading. It is notable that the districts with significantly higher relative risks are those that contain the outfalls for licensed releases of radioisotopes from the nuclear sites at the Atomic Energy Research Establishment, Harwell; the Atomic Weapons Establishment, Aldermaston; and the Royal Ordnance Factory, Burghfield. Bithell et al, however, found no significant excess of leukaemia between 1966 and 1987 within a 25 km radius of the 23 nuclear installations that they studied.(1)

Table 1 - Comparison of deaths from leukaemia (ICD 204-208) in children aged 0-14 in county districts in Oxford, Reading, and Newbury areas near nuclear sites, 1981-95. (Source: Office for National Statistics)

Person years at risk Observed deaths (O) Expected deaths (E) Relative risk (O/E) Poisson PÝ (xgO-1)
Oxford city283,93033.90.780.75
Cherwell392,38075.31.30.27
West Oxford265,00053.61.40.29
South Oxfordshire361,750124.92.45**0.0047
Vale of the White Horse326,49034.40.680.815
Newbury420,240115.71.93*0.031
Reading379,84065.21.150.42
England and Wales145,775 000 1980---
*P0.05,**P0.01.

ÝProbability, assuming a Poisson probability distribution for deaths from leukaemia with expected mean E, that a number of deaths equal to or greater than the number observed should occur.

In 1989 the Committee on Medical Aspects of Radiation in the Environment reported on childhood leukaemia in west Berkshire and confirmed a significant increase in incidence (relative risk 1.3; P0.05) between 1972 and 1985.(2) The committee established that since 1948 all three nuclear sites had been releasing radioactive gases into the immediate surroundings and liquid effluents into the river Thames at Sutton Courtenay (from the Atomic Energy Research Establishment) and at Pangbourne (from the Atomic Weapons Establishment), and into the river Kennet (from the Atomic Weapons Establishment and Royal Ordnance Factory). Geographical constraints would concentrate most of the radioisotopes within the two river valleys; inhalation and ingestion could result in differential contamination of the populations. Data in the committee's report suggest that south Oxfordshire would be most strongly affected followed by Newbury, which would be a little less strongly affected, and that both these areas would be much more strongly affected than more remote districts upwind or upriver of the nuclear sites.

There is no sea dilution effect in this area and the pollution is likely to remain in the local environment, unlike releases from British Nuclear Fuels at Sellafield. Recent measurements of plutonium-239 and plutonium-240 confirm this. Croudace et al found soil concentrations as high as 10 Bq/kg.(3) This is more than 10 times the highest amounts expected from fallout from weapons testing-compare with the range 0.17-0.41 Bq/kg.(2)

It is possible that these radioactive emissions might have harmful effects on those living near the sites or in areas close to the rivers where effluents are discharged. The committee concluded that levels of exposure were too low to cause any measurable increase in leukaemia both at Sellafield and in west Berkshire.(2) The risk factors that were used to support this view, however, are derived from the studies of Hiroshima, which are of short term, high dose external exposure. Concern has been expressed recently that these risk factors may be unsuitable when used to measure the effects of long term, low dose internal exposure.(4)

Chris Busby
Researcher
Molly Scott Cato
Researcher
Green Audit (Wales),
Aberystwyth SY23 1PU

cato@gn.apc.org

References

1 Bithell J F, Dutton S J, Draper G J, Neary N M. Distribution of childhood leukaemias and non-Hodgkin's lymphomas near nuclear installations in England and Wales. BMJ 1994;309:501-5.

2 Committee on Medical Aspects of Radiation in the Environment. Third report: the incidence of childhood cancer in the west Berkshire and north Hampshire area in which are situated the atomic weapons research establishment, Aldermaston and the Royal Ordnance Factory, Burghfield. London: HMSO, 1989.

3 Croudace I W, Saunderson D C W, Warwick P E, Allyson J D. A regional study of the radiation environment of Greenham Common, Newbury district and surrounding areas. Southampton: Southampton Oceanography Centre, 1997.

4 Bramhall R, ed. The health effects of low-level radiation: proceedings of a symposium held at the House of Commons, April 1996. Aberystwyth: Green Audit, 1997.


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