From a bit of a dud to the world's most sought after drug in the space of six months, surely Roche cannot believe its luck with oseltamivir (Tamiflu). Despite a silly name and a lack of convincing evidence that it will have any real impact on an influenza pandemic, sales and recognition of the drug frequently dubbed “our best hope against bird flu” have leapt through the roof.

Between 1999 and 2002 Roche sold just 5.5 million treatments. Next year the total sales of oseltamivir are projected at 150 million. Roche's share price has soared this year by 60%.

Sir Liam Donaldson, England's chief medical officer, has noted that doctors have little idea how effective oseltamivir antiviral tablets would actually be during a pandemic.

But this has not affected demand and Roche cannot make the drug quickly enough for the 50 countries currently stock-piling it. On the internet Tamiflu is trading at five times its retail price.

Of course in large part Roche has Mother Nature to thank for the turn …